Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, January 23 to 24, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED JAN 23 2008

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT. GFS CONTINUES TO HAVE A STABLE
MIDDLE GROUND SOLUTION OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS AND IS THUS THE
PREFERRED MODEL OF THE DAY. THE GFS DOES SEEM TO OVER SIMPLIFY THE
FORECAST FOR MAINLAND ALASKA BEGINNING AROUND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM
UKMET AND ECMWF ARE ALL ABLE TO RESOLVE MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALASKA AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THE GFS HOWEVER IS
ALONE IN RECOGNIZING ONLY A SINGLE LARGE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF. WE
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE FORECAST LATER ON BUT THE SIMPLER
GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED FOR THE MOMENT.

.UPPER LEVELS...
TROUGH ALOFT OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
MOVES OVER WESTERN CANADA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN BERING PROGRESSES GRADUALLY
EASTWARD TODAY THEN BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT TONIGHT AS IT MOVES OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA.
A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS ABOVE SHEMYA THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKENS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA THURSDAY EVENING.

.SURFACE FEATURES...
A 1014 MB LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE OVER COASTAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST.
A 993 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO 976 MB NEAR CAPE YAKATAGA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
A 975 MB LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
TO 967 MB AS IT PASSES OVER THE CHAIN THIS MORNING. THE LOW WILL
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL WESTERN BERING
SEA BY THU MORNING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
FLANK OF THE LOW TODAY AND ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK TONIGHT. STORM
FORCE WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. ULTIMATELY THE LOW WEAKENS TO AROUND 991 MB JUST
SOUTH OF SAINT MATT ISLAND THURSDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD.

.FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST TODAY ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED FROM HOMER TO
PALMER TO CORDOVA. SHOWER ACTIVITY LESSENING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM.

.FORECAST FOR SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND...
NORTHWEST WINDS AND A DRYING TREND TODAY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA.
HOWEVER THE RESPITE WILL BE BRIEF. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND
INCREASING CLOUDS AGAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE BERING SYSTEM. SNOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS BRISTOL BAY AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON THURSDAY THEN SPREADING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

.FORECAST FOR PRIBILOFS ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS...
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE EAST TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM.
PLENTY OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
AS SNOW THEN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN TOWARD MORNING THURSDAY.
BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE PRIBILOFS FOR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING AROUND NOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANGING BACK TO SNOW SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

.FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
VERY STRONG EAST WINDS TODAY. UP TO 65 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS AND UP TO 80 MPH OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. HIGH WIND
WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION FALLING
MAINLY AS MIXED RAIN AND SNOW. HOWEVER BLOWING SNOW MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO ONE MILE OR LESS BRIEFLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS MORNING.

.EXTENDED...
THE LOW PROGGED TO BE OVER THE BARREN ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT IS
PROGGED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. OUT WEST ANOTHER VERY STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW IS
PROGGED TO FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO ITS PREDECESSOR.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND 191
         BLIZZARD 195
MARINE...GALE  120 121 132 138 140 150 155 160 165 170 171 180
         STORM 130 172 179 185
         HURC 175 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 08