Blizzard and Heavy Snow in Alaska, January 22 to 23, 2008

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AST TUE JAN 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE BE EXTREMELY ACTIVE. A
STRONG RIDGE CONTINUES TO COVER A LOT OF REAL ESTATE FROM NEAR 40N
150W UP THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND CONTINUING UP
THROUGH THE YUKON. A TROUGH IS FOUND TO THE WEST OF THE STATE
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. A STORM SYSTEM WILL TRACK BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS A 981 MB LOW THAT
IS NEAR HOOPER BAY AS OF 12Z AND WILL PASS JUST EAST OF SAINT
LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KIVALINA BY 00Z WED. THE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES ARE ALL IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT INTO THE BEAUFORT
SEA ON WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ALONG THE WEST COAST...THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR 213 STILL LOOKS TO
BE ON TRACK. GAMBELL HAS BEEN REPORTING NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG CAA AND
PRESSURE RISES WILL LIKELY KEEP THE BLIZZARD OR AT LEAST NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS GOING THROUGH THE DAY ALONG THE BERING
STRAIGHT COAST AND ON SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY FOR 207 ALSO LOOKS GOOD...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON CONDITIONS ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW TONIGHT. FOR NOW
EXTENDED THE BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY TO INCLUDE TONIGHT AS THERE
WILL BE A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WIND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.

UP ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT EAST
OF HARRISON BAY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS PROGGED AROUND 50 KTS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
20 MB IN 6 HOURS. EXPANDED THE BLIZZARD WATCH WEST WITH THIS
PACKAGE TO INCLUDE ZONE 203. LIKELY THAT AT LEAST A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD IN ZONE 202...BUT WIDESPREAD
AND PROLONGED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LOOK LESS LIKELY FURTHER WEST.
THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE SOME STRONG WIND AND BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE PASSES IN ZONES 206 AND 218 AND HAVE A BLOWING SNOW
ADVISORY TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT WILL PROBABLY NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS FURTHER
NORTH.

ACROSS THE INTERIOR THE PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR GETTING A PERIOD OF
STRONGER WIND TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
SOME STRONGER WIND LOCALLY IN FAIRBANKS.  EXPECT THE WIND TO
INCREASE TO 10 TO 25 MPH IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS.
ACROSS THE HIGHER SUMMITS THE WIND WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 20 TO
40 MPH AND ISOLATED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SUMMITS. WILL BE ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 219 THROUGH 222. AS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL NOT HAVE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DID NOT WANT TO GO THE ROUTE OF A BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR HIGHER SUMMITS ONLY. WILL HIT ON THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS IN THE WSW.

THE WIND CONTINUES TO HOWL THROUGH THE PASSES OF THE ALASKA RANGE
WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 60-70 MPH AT TEXAS CONDO EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
EVEN DELTA JUNCTION WAS GUSTING OVER 60 MPH AT TIMES LATE LAST
EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY
FOR THE AREA AROUND DELTA JUNCTION AS WELL AS THE PASSES IN ZONES
225 AND 226. AS THE WIND STARTS TO VEER MORE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING THE WIND SHOULD START TO SETTLE DOWN TO BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FOR AKZ203-AKZ204.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ216-AKZ217.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-AKZ222.

BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR AKZ206-AKZ207-AKZ218.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ215-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240.
&&

CB JAN 08