Flash Flood and Heavy Rain in Alabama, November 14 to 15, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
616 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

.UPDATE...00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CIGS MAY FALL INTO MVFR RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS SHRA BEGIN TO AFFECT BOTH TERMINALS. VISBYS WILL MOSTLY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR CATEGORY. WINDS COULD HAVE IMPACTS ON
BOTH TERMINALS AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH KMSL AROUND 5Z AND
KHSV AROUND 7Z. W/NWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 25 KT. SHRA WILL PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN TAPER OFF
SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER MVFR CIGS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY LAST
THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 158 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...COMPLEX STORM SYSTEM
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CURRENTLY A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHES
FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA TO NE MS AND INTO W LA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
MAIN FRONT LATER TONIGHT BEFORE IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWESTERN AL
AROUND DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WILL BE STRONG WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE RATHER WEAK...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE PICTURE. HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 OR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WILL SWITCH FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.

BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY...BELIEVE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH ONLY WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...THE BULK OF WHICH LOOKS
TO BE FURTHER NORTH IN TN. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT LOWER POPS IN THE 30
PERCENT RANGE TO REFLECT THIS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND TEMPERATURES WITHIN
THE SATURATED PORTION OF THE MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO -3 OR -4 DEGREES CELSIUS...ONLY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. SOME HIGHER WINDS GUSTS TO 25 MPH
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY
REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER DO DROP TO NEAR -8 DEGREES
CELSIUS BRIEFLY SATURDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 6 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
THEREFORE...IF ENOUGH MOISTURE HOLDS ON THAT LONG...COULD SEE A
FLURRY OR TWO IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN AL AND
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR REALLY FUNNELS IN BEHIND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE AROUND 30 DEGREES...WITH HIGH ONLY REACHING THE
MID 40S. WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF TEMPERATURES END UP LOWER...BUT
GOING BELOW GUIDANCE AS IT IS.

A SLIGHT WARMUP LOOKS REASONABLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM FROM THE
GREAT LAKES THROUGH KANSAS ON SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS PROGGED BY
MODELS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
BEFORE THIS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REBOUND ONLY INTO THE MID 40S AGAIN ON TUESDAY. THE REST OF THE
WEEK...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL SLOWLY REBOUND TO AROUND 50S DEGREES ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF YET
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT SWINGING SOUTHEAST FROM EASTERN
CANADA...BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AGAIN. MODELS INDICATE SOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...DL/BCC
DISCUSSION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
658 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-151100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
658 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING ANY THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING...AS COLDER
AIR MOVES INTO THE THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES MAY BRING A
FEW FLURRIES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN
MIDDLE TENNESSEE SATURDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

BCC