Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, January 10, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
705 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO REMOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS VISBYS CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 430 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008/

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING BETTER DEVELOPED TO THE WEST
OVER PARTS OF LA AND CENTRAL MS. EXPECT THE CONVERGE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR WARM FRONT OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA. LATEST PROGS BY BOTH THE GFS AND RUC
DEPICT A STRONG MID LEVEL JET MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH THIS
SYSTEM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT COMBINED WITH MARGINAL
CAPES AND HELICITIES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS A RESULT A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN POSTED
THROUGH 12Z FRI. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WX WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER MET GUIDANCE TODAY AND TONIGHT
DUE TO GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION. DENSE FOG WILL SLOWLY LIFT BY MID MORNING FOR
MOST AREAS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.
/32

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WELL
EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON W/ CLEARING SKIES IN ITS WAKE
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT
WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES APPROACHES. THIS WILL INDUCE SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF SAT NIGHT. THE SFC LOW SHOULD STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP MOST OF THE RAINFALL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT SAT
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS
SHORTWAVE AS HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUN
NIGHT AND MON. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
MON NIGHT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR FOR MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL START THE EXTENDED A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND
END SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. /13

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. A
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT EARLY FRIDAY DECREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. /32

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      77  53  62  40 /  70  80  10  10
PENSACOLA   73  57  61  44 /  40  80  20  10
DESTIN      72  58  63  46 /  30  70  30  10
EVERGREEN   74  53  61  38 /  70  80  10  10
WAYNESBORO  74  46  60  36 /  90  60  05  10
CAMDEN      73  51  59  37 /  90  80  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

13/JC
32/EE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1130 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-111200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1130 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO BELOW ONE NAUTICAL MILE
OVER SOME PARTS OF THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS
TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF
LATE MORNING...THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOT VERY
UNSTABLE...BUT BOTH INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY AS A STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPS ACROSS ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS JET WILL PROVIDE MORE
OF A SPEED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION MORE SO THAN A DIRECTIONAL TYPE
SHEAR...BUT THE SPEED SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A TORNADO
THREAT WITH THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SUPERCELL STORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TORNADO THREAT FROM THESE ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE HIGHEST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. A STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...THIS LINE WILL MORE LIKELY BE PRODUCING
PRIMARILY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS... BUT LARGE HAIL AND SHORT
LIVED ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE AS
WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. AS A RESULT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BE NECESSARY MOSTLY FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY PERSONNEL MAY BE REQUIRED
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1148 AM CST THU JAN 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUCKATUNNA              31.54N 88.53W
01/10/2008                   WAYNE              MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

&&

CACERES