Flash Flooding in Alabama, April 11, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
340 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS
MOVING THROUGH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS
SYSTEM ARE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND WIND HAVE GONE
NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL RESULTING IN THE HIGHER TORNADO THREAT TO OUR
NORTH. INSTABILITIES WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET TONIGHT WITH A
RESULTING DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT. THE LINE OF STORMS MAY SLOW
SOMEWHAT AS IT BECOMES STRETCHED OUT FROM SW TO NE THIS EVENING AS
THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS MAY CAUSE A LOCALIZED
INCREASE IN THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF AREA WHERE THE
HEAVY RAIN FELL LAST FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING WITH SKIES CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRIER AND
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ON SUNDAY AND WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. /13

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE UPPER TROUGH
TRANSITIONS EAST OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA STARTING MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING
SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPS TO OUR REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
OVERNIGHT READINGS GETTING DOWN INTO THE 30S MOST INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES
MONDAY NIGHT. OUR FORECAST TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN THE GFS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT GIVEN SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF MECHANICAL MIXING (DUE TO WIND)
AND CLOUD COVER...AND WE TRENDED JUST A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE GFS FOR MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN WE ARE DEEP INTO THE TRANSITION
SEASON AND THE GFS MAY BE A TAD BIT COOL. STILL...WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH OUT FOR A FROST OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A
DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...SO NO RAIN
WAS PUT INTO THE FORECAST PAST THIS WEEKEND. /05

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT...BRINGING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
INCREASED WINDS/SEAS TO THE MARINE AREA. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN LIKELY CONTINUE JUST ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z SATURDAY.  EXPECT A WINDSHIFT FROM ONSHORE TO OFFSHORE AS
THE FRONT PASSES...PRIMARILY DURING THE EARLY PREDAWN AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY OVER AREA
BAYS AND OUT TO 20NMI ON SUNDAY...BUT MAY REMAIN NEAR SCA LEVELS
BEYOND 20 NMI...AND THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE OFFSHORE
ZONES...BUT WE WILL MAKE THAT CALL ON A LATER FCST PACKAGE. EXPECT
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST. /12

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... EXPECT TO SEE A SQUALL LINE MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING WITH
NORTHWESTERLY TRANSPORT WINDS AND A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN ON
SUNDAY.  DEEPLY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN MUCH LOWER RH VALUES
SUNDAY...AND WE MAINTAIN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF LONG DURATIONS OF
LOW RH.  /05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      61  72  48  70 /  70  40  10  20
PENSACOLA   64  71  47  69 /  60  60  10  20
DESTIN      64  70  53  71 /  60  60  10  20
EVERGREEN   61  70  43  63 /  70  40  10  20
WAYNESBORO  59  71  41  64 /  60  30  10  20
CAMDEN      60  71  43  62 /  70  30  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COVINGTON...ESCAMBIA...LOWER BALDWIN...
     LOWER MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...AND UPPER MOBILE.

FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...COASTAL WALTON...INLAND ESCAMBIA...
     INLAND OKALOOSA...AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL ESCAMBIA...COASTAL OKALOOSA...
     COASTAL SANTA ROSA...INLAND ESCAMBIA...INLAND OKALOOSA...
     AND INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SATURDAY TO 4 PM SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA
     MS OUT 20 NM...MOBILE BAY...WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA
     FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO
     PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

13.JC
12.DS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-GMZ630-650-655-670-675-MSZ067-075-076-078-
079-121600-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-MOBILE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
1118 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF INLAND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME LOCALLY SEVERE...WILL OCCUR OVER
INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY AND THIS WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
CURRENTLY...FORECASTERS FEEL THAT THE EVENT COULD POSSIBLY BEGIN AS
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AND END WITH YET ANOTHER HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
THAT WOULD TAKE SHAPE FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH OVERNIGHT.  SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS ARE ALREADY NEAR BANKFULL OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS SITUATION WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
EXACERBATED WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
SOON BE ISSUED AND IT WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.

IF LARGE DIAMETER HAIL OCCURS...IT WILL MOSTLY BE OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME INTERIOR SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
(WEST OF I-65) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER
STORMS THAT EVOLVE ALONG THE LINE.  THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW...BUT
THE LOCAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY PROFILE IS
SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
WEST OF I-65.

THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMING IS SUCH THAT A THUDERSTORM LINE
WILL MOVE EAST OF I-65 BY MID-EVENING AND PROGRESS EAST OF DESTIN BY
SUNRISE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONE TO TWO INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES. THE MAIN CONCERN IS THE
SMALLER RIVERS AND CREEKS OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT
COULD RISE TO NEAR OR OVER BANKFULL IN RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY RAINS.

A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE BEACHES OF
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TODAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN BE
LIFE THREATENING TO ANYONE ENTERING THE SURF.

MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS RANGING FROM 4 TO 6 FEET OVER THE
MARINE AREA TODAY MAY LEAD TO POTENTIAL HAZARDS FOR THOSE OPERATING
SMALLER MARINE CRAFT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING LATE IN THE WEEKEND...OFFSHORE FLOW
INCREASES ALONG WITH MODERATE SEAS...MAINTAINING THE HAZARD FOR
RECREATIONAL AND COMMERCIAL BOATING.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT SHOULD STAY TUNED TODAY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHAPPELL HILL           31.89N 88.26W
04/11/2008                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AND PEA SIZE HAIL.

&&

KIRKC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N MILLRY              31.66N 88.31W
04/11/2008                   WASHINGTON         AL   STORM CHASER

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BETWEEN MILLARY AND SILAS.

&&

KIRKC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
613 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLADON SPRINGS          31.73N 88.20W
04/11/2008                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ACROSS CR-6 NEAR ENTRANCE TO BLADON
            SPRINGS PARK. ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN BLADON SPRINGS.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BLADON SPRINGS          31.73N 88.20W
04/11/2008                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG CR-6 NEAR ENTRANCE TO BLADON
            SPRINGS PARK. ALSO POWER LINES DOWN IN BLADON SPRINGS.

&&

KIRKC