Hail in Wisconsin, June 10, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
237 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LAKE
BREEZE FRONT WITH INSTABILITY CU SEE ON VIS SAT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS
LARGE CIN AND A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT...KEEP 20-30 SCT POPS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRONG WAA PATTERN AND NOSE OF
30-40 KT LLJ PUSHING INTO NW MN. BY MIDNIGHT STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVCTN SHIFTS E INTO THE WRN PORTION OF THE
DLH CWA. THIS INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY AND LIFT...SO A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE /W OF
INL TO BRD/...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS MAIN THREATS.

A THERMAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING THICKNESS AND THETA-E ADVCTN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY REACHING THE 80S...AND POSSIBLY 90 IN A FEW
LOCALES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A 10-15 KT
LAKE BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 60-70 RANGE ALONG THE
LAKESHORE OF WRN LS.

A VORT MAX WILL MOVE INTO NW MN MON AFTRN...BRINGING MODEST PVA
AND OMEGA TO TRIGGER SOME TSTMS THROUGH THE LATE AFTRN/EVENING
HOURS. THE THE STRONGEST LIFT AND BEST MOISTURE /DEW PTS IN THE
70/ WILL BE FOUND IN THE NW PORTION OF THE FA...WITH SCT TSTMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA MONDAY NIGHT.

ATTN TURNS TO MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND DEEPENING LOW THAT BECOMES
NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE DAKOTAS MID WEEK...SLOWLY APPROACHING THE
NORTHLAND WED/THU. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM
DUE TO THE STRONG OMEGA-BLOCK THAT TAKES HOLD OF CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FCST. THE NAM IS THE FASTER OF THE
MODELS...WENT CLOSER TO GFS/ECMWF FOR TIMING OF FRONT AND BETTER
TSTM ACTIVITY FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  77  60  78 /  20  20  20  20
INL  59  85  62  86 /  30  30  20  20
BRD  63  88  66  87 /  30  20  20  20
HYR  57  88  61  85 /  20  20  20  10
ASX  57  83  59  84 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

GRANING/CLC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

LSZ121-140>148-MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-
006>009-112030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
317 PM CDT SUN JUN 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL GENERALLY BE WELL INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...BUT THEY
WILL CONTAIN LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE

THERE ARE SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.  SOME
STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE ON TUESDAY...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM
CRANE LAKE...TO AITKIN MINNESOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR
TONIGHT.

CLC