Debris Flow and High Wind in Washington, January 2, 2007

Name: Debris Flow and High Wind in Washington, January 2, 2007
Start: 2007-01-02T08:00
End: 2007-01-02T18:00
Location: Washington

January 2, 2007 · NWS SEW · 7 events in 7 counties and zones

About 25,000 people lost power as a strong Pacific frontal system moved through western Washington. Downed trees and power lines blocked a few roads.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $101,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 7

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.

About 25,000 people lost power as a strong Pacific frontal system moved through western Washington. Downed trees and power lines blocked a few roads. Landslides closed several roads.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 2, 6:30 AM PST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 2, 6:30 AM PST, 1 hour 30 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
630 AM PST TUE JAN 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND WIND TODAY. WET
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL
FRONTS MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD HOOD CANAL AREA TO WIND
ADVISORY TODAY. MOST OBSERVATIONS IN ZONE 511 HAVE LITTLE WIND BUT
BREMERTON 15 TO 30 MPH AND HAD A SPOTTER FROM BRINNON (740 FEET
ABOVE SEA LEVEL) CALL IN WITH A REPORT OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 58. THE
58 MPH IS MARGINAL HIGH WIND BUT THINK THIS IS AN ISOLATED ONE-TIME
REPORT AND NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF MOST OF THE ZONE SO HELD OFF ON
ISSUING A WARNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE BUSY WEATHER CONTINUES. A FRONT
WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY. ALREADY RAINING
AND BREEZY MANY AREAS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. NORTH CENTRAL PUGET
SOUND CURRENTLY GETTING SHADOWED. RAIN AND WIND WILL LIKELY INCREASE
A LITTLE LATER TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AS THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES
THROUGH. FLOOD WARNING FOR SKOKOMISH RIVER...EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE
FLOOD LATER THIS MORNING. FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
AREA. RIVER MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT SOME
GET CLOSE. WIND ADVISORY NORTH INTERIOR TODAY. SNOW LEVELS HIGH BUT
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENTS COULD KEEP PASSES BELOW FREEZING FOR A
WINTERY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN. STEVENS AND STAMPEDE APPEAR
TO HAVE SCOURED BUT SNOQUALMIE CURRENTLY REMAINS BELOW FREEZING.
WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PASSES THIS
MORNING.

FRONT MOVES INLAND THIS EVENING WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SHOWERS.
PASSES SHOULD SCOUR AS EAST FLOW SHIFTS TO WEST. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER TO 3000 TO 4000 FEET TONIGHT. MOIST WEST FLOW INTO THE
CASCADES SUGGESTS SNOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS WILL FALL BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY KEEPING THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THE FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SPLIT AND NO ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED. A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER
CENTRAL OREGON WEDNESDAY BUT AIR NOT COLD ENOUGH TO WORRY ABOUT SNOW
IN THE LOWLANDS. BOTTOM LINE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS CONTINUED
HIGH POPS BUT NOT A LOT OF QPF OR STEADY PRECIPITATION. SCHNEIDER

.LONG TERM...STRONG ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL WET SYSTEMS WITH
LITTLE LETUP. DETAILS IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN WITH THIS KIND OF A
PATTERN. GFS SUGGESTS MOSTLY DRY MONDAY BUT NO CONFIDENCE IN THAT
AND WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH THE CURRENT BROAD BRUSH WET FORECAST.
SCHNEIDER

&&

.AVIATION...A FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE N COAST WILL SPREAD RAIN OVER
WRN WA THROUGH TODAY...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH
LCL IFR. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH 00-02Z TUE EVENING WITH
CIGS IMPROVING.

KSEA...MVFR CIGS TODAY W/ TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE DURING BRIEF HEAVIER
RAIN. 3-4K FT CIGS W/ SHOWERS AFTER 02Z FROPA. S/SW WIND 5-10 KT W/
GUSTS 25KT POSSIBLE.

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST INTERIOR...HOOD CANAL AREA...AND WESTERN
STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA.
.GALE WARNING COAST...STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA ENTRANCES...ADMIRALTY
INLET...AND CAMANO ISLAND TO POINT ROBERTS.
.SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AND GRAYS HARBOR
BAR.
.FLOOD WATCH OLYMPICS AND WEST SLOPES OF THE CASCADES KING COUNTY
NORTHWARD.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 2, 6:14 AM PST, 1 hour 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
614 AM PST TUE JAN 02 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0613 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SW BRINNON            47.65N 122.94W
01/02/2007  M58 MPH          JEFFERSON          WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Event by event

5 strong wind, 1 high wind, 1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.

Strong Wind, Seattle/Bremerton Area

When: January 2, 8:00 AM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where: Seattle/Bremerton Area forecast zone
Measured: 39 kt (45 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Newspaper

Strong Wind, East Puget Sound Lowlands

When: January 2, 8:00 AM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where: East Puget Sound Lowlands forecast zone
Measured: 25 kt (29 mph) estimated sustained
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Newspaper

Strong Wind, Western Skagit County

When: January 2, 8:00 AM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where: Western Skagit County forecast zone
Measured: 33 kt (38 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Newspaper

Downed trees and power poles blocked some roads. A couple of roofs in the Sedro Woolley area were damaged.

Strong Wind, Western Strait of Juan de Fuca

When: January 2, 8:00 AM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where: Western Strait of Juan de Fuca forecast zone
Measured: 30 kt (35 mph) estimated sustained
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Newspaper

Downed trees and power poles blocked some roads.

Strong Wind, Admiralty Inlet Area

When: January 2, 8:00 AM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where: Admiralty Inlet Area forecast zone
Measured: 49 kt (56 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Newspaper

High Wind, Western Whatcom County

When: January 2, 8:00 AM PST to 6:00 PM PST
Where: Western Whatcom County forecast zone
Measured: 60 kt (69 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $50,000
Reported by: Newspaper

A downed tree and power lines closed a street in Bellingham.

Debris Flow, Tacoma Area

When: January 2, 12:00 PM PST to 4:00 PM PST
Where: Tacoma Area forecast zone
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: Newspaper

A landslide closed a Tacoma road for several hours.

What these are

Strong Wind: Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Debris Flow: A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Washington in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Washington, January 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 10812, 10813, 10814, 10815, 10816, 10817, 10818.