Wildfire in Washington, August 16 to 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
1115 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...UPPER LOW HAS MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TODAY. MARINE PUSH UNDER WAY FROM THE GORGE AND KITTITAS
VALLEY INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN. GUSTY WEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DOWN 5-10 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY AS
COOLER AIR MOVES IN. EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEMS THE
MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH BEST
INSTABILITY. UPPER LOW REMAINS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY HOWEVER A MORE
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME BLOWING DUST MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE KPDT TO KYKM
TWEB ROUTE ALSO AT TAF SITES KPDT...KPSC THAT MAY REDUCE VSBY AND
LOWER CEILINGS AND APPROACH MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007/

SHORT TERM....SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
OF WARM AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH OFF
THE COAST THAT WILL BE PUSHING INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOTH THE
GFS AND NAM12 ARE FORECASTING ENOUGH CAPE/NEGATIVE LI/AND MOISTURE
TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
MOUNTAINS OF THE CWA. IN WESTERN AREAS COOLER AND MORE STABLE MARINE
AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
MARINE PUSH AS THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST PUSHES INLAND. HAVE
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING FOR FIRE ZONE 632 IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING...AND ALSO TO ISSUE A NEW FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR FIRE ZONES 633..634 AND 635 TODAY FROM 11 AM
THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING AS WELL FOR DRY LIGHTNING AND/OR LIGHTNING
AFTER AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH
OF FIRE ZONE 638 (BAKER COUNTY) AND AGREE TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR 638 AT THIS TIME. WILL ISSUE THE NEW FW
PRODUCTS WITH THE 4 AM FORECAST PACKAGE AND WILL ALSO REFRESH THE
RED FLAG WARNING AT THAT TIME AS WELL. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED COOLING
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
THAN WEDNESDAY AND ABOUT 5 MORE DEGREES COOLER ON FRIDAY. 88

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL
SWING TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...SPREADING CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SUNDAY AS THE DAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD PRODUCE A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE NORTHEAST OREGON AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ON SUNDAY WITH MANY LOCATIONS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF OREGON. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST...BRINGING A
MORE STABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  89  58  85  55 /  10  10  10  10
ALW  90  63  86  60 /  10  10  10  10
PSC  93  58  87  55 /  10  10  10  10
YKM  90  54  83  52 /  10  10  10  10
HRI  90  57  86  53 /  10  10  10  10
ELN  84  56  77  55 /  10  10  10  10
RDM  86  46  81  43 /  10  10  10  10
LGD  91  54  86  50 /  20  20  10  10
GCD  90  51  85  48 /  20  20  10  10
DLS  84  60  81  58 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ632.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ633>635.

WA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR WAZ633.

&&

TI:YGG
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON
94/97

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
900 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007

ORZ041-WAZ024-501-502-026>030-ORZ042>044-049-050-501>506-171415-
EASTERN COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON-
KITTITAS VALLEY-YAKIMA VALLEY-LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON-
NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS-NORTH CENTRAL OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON-
LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON-GRANDE RONDE VALLEY-WALLOWA COUNTY-
FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON-
NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES-JOHN DAY BASIN-
OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS-
900 AM PDT THU AUG 16 2007

UPDATE TO ADD BLOWING DUST

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OREGON
AS WELL AS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WASHINGTON.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT

FIRE WEATHER WATCH
     NORTHWEST BLUE MOUNTAINS, GRANDE RONDE VALLEY, WALLOWA COUNTY,
     NORTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF
     OREGON, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

BLOWING DUST
     EAST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, KITTITAS
     VALLEY, YAKIMA VALLEY, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF WASHINGTON,
     FOOTHILLS OF THE BLUE MOUNTAINS OF WASHINGTON, NORTHWEST BLUE
     MOUNTAINS, LOWER COLUMBIA BASIN OF OREGON, FOOTHILLS OF THE
     BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON

THUNDERSTORMS
     EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, EAST SLOPES
     OF THE SOUTHERN CASCADES OF WASHINGTON, NORTH CENTRAL OREGON,
     CENTRAL OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND SOUTHERN GILLIAM
     COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS

RED FLAG WARNING
     SOUTHERN BLUE MOUNTAINS OF OREGON, NORTHERN WHEELER AND
     SOUTHERN GILLIAM COUNTIES, JOHN DAY BASIN, OCHOCO-JOHN DAY
     HIGHLANDS

     CONTACT YOUR LOCAL FOREST OR LAND MANAGEMENT AGENCY FOR
     CURRENT FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA.

UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION TODAY COULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN. IN ADDITION TO THIS A MARINE
PUSH OF COOLER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE
LIKELY FROM THE GORGE AND KITTITAS VALLEY INTO THE COLUMBIA BASIN.
PATCHY BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE. THE THUNDERSTORMS AND WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

GRAPHICAL FORECASTS OF WEATHER HAZARDS OUT TO SEVEN DAYS
ARE DISPLAYED ON THE WORLD WIDE WEB AT:

WWW.WRH.NOAA.GOV/PDT/CURRENTHAZARDS/HWO.HTML

ALL LETTERS IN THE ABOVE URL ARE LOWER CASE...EXCEPT THE H IN
CURRENTHAZARDS.