Drought conditions worsened during early October with parts of southwest Virginia entering into the Severe (D2) Category. Rainfall the last week of October helped to mitigate the drought severity.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
Drought conditions worsened during early October with parts of southwest Virginia entering into the Severe (D2) Category. Rainfall the last week of October helped to mitigate the drought severity.
Due to the drought conditions and increased fire danger, the Governor on October 19th declared a burn ban for the entire state.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 9, 5:52 AM EST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 652 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS THEY HEAD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. MUCH COOLER...AND MAINLY DRY...WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AT THIS TIME...WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPCHNG FRONT STILL ACROSS CENTRAL KY AND TN. WITH A VERY WARM START THIS MORNING...TEMPS WILL SOAR WITH MORNING SUNSHINE. I EXPECT CLOUDS TO MOVE INTO THE MTNS THIS AFT AND CUT OFF THE HEATING SOMEWHAT...BUT PIEDMONT AREAS ARE LIKELY TO MAXIMIZE THEIR HIGH TEMPS WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW TO BOOT. SHOULD REACH LOW 90S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN...AND I HAVE MAINTAINED THE RECORD HIGHS THAT WE WERE FORECASTING...WITH SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HIGHS. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR SPECIFIC RECORDS. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING A STRONG LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PIEDMONT WHILE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE UPPER SYSTEM PROPELLING THE FRONT EASTWARD LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. LOOKS LIKE THE SRN END OF THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT MOVES EAST...SO I HAVE GONE WITH THE SLOWER GFS SOLUTION BRINGING SHOWERS/POSSIBLE TSTMS INTO THE MTNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH...WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE... AND THE SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE TROUGH...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN CWA SO I HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THE COOLER AIR WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY WED...SO I RAISED THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS MOST LOCATIONS. WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AGAIN. ROANOKE AND BLACKSBURG MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE PERIOD BEYOND WEDNESDAY WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE EAST RANGING FROM THE THE NORTHEAST U.S. TO OVER VA BY FRIDAY MORNING. ANY OF THE SOLUTIONS SHOULD KEEP MUCH COOLER AIR OVER THE REGION...BRINGING OUR TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL- POSSIBLY BELOW NORMAL IF THE UPPER LOW MOVES THIS FAR SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...I HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN CHANGES WERE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS IN THE MTNS A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY BASED ON MORE CLOUDINESS...AND RAISING THE WINDS...WHICH MAY BE QUITE BRISK BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON IF THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... POSITION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE BY THU NIGHT...AND MODELS RANGE FROM THE NAM WITH THE LOW DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE SRN APPLNS...TO THE GFS WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN VA...AND THE CANADIAN WITH JUST A VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH ANY OF THESE TRACKS WOULD BE THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP...WITH THE NAM THE MOST FAVORABLE. ALL SOLUTIONS WOULD BE MUCH COOLER THAN THE WARM WX WE HAVE HAD THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. I LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FRIDAY...AND INCREASED THE WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY...I DID NOT CHANGE THE POPS THU NIGHT/FRIDAY OR MAKE ANY CHANGES AFTER FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH NW FLOW AND STILL COOL TEMPS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... TYPICAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AT LWB NEAR DAWN SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INTO CENTRAL KY AND TN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. DO HAVE SHOWERS WITH VICINITY TSTMS IN TAFS FOR BLF AND LWB RIGHT NOW NEAR 19 TO 20Z...AND END BY 23Z. IF AIRPORT TAKES A DIRECT HIT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. STILL DOUBTFUL ANY STORMS WILL HOLD TOGETHER INTO THE BLUE RIDGE...SO NO MENTION OF CONVECTION AT ROA...LYH OR DAN. VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KDAN HAS BEEN REPORTED AS NOT OPERATING PROPERLY AND TECHNICIANS SHOULD BE EXAMINING IT LATER TODAY. RECENT IFR HAZY CONDITIONS IN THE METARS ARE BOGUS VIA REPORTS FROM FOLKS AT THE AIRPORT. NOT SURE IF THE FOG BEING REPORTED NOW IS REAL. PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN TAF WILL REFLECT VFR VSBYS THROUGH NIGHT AND TOMORROW. COOLER AIR COMES IN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. && .CLIMATE... RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 9TH (TUESDAY). ROANOKE...86 (1958) LYNCHBURG...92 (1939) DANVILLE....87 (1990) BLACKSBURG...81 (1962) BLUEFIELD...81 (1990) RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 10TH (WEDNESDAY) ROANOKE...64 (1999) LYNCHBURG...67 (1913) DANVILLE....69 (1959) BLACKSBURG...58 (2005) BLUEFIELD...64 (1970) && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...NONE. NC...NONE. WV...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...JH/PC/RCS NEAR TERM...JH/RCS SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...PC AVIATION...JJ/KM CLIMATE...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007 NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>045-100845- ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON- CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE- PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL- APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE- GREENBRIER- 445 AM EDT TUE OCT 9 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The county entered the Severe (D2) Category of drought on October 9th. This level of severity continued until October 30th when it was downgraded to the Moderate (D1) Category.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 63718.