A warm front moving north across northern Virginia and a surface trough on the lee side of the Appalachians combined with a warm and unstable airmass to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. A storm in the City of Winchester became severe, producing large hail.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A warm front moving north across northern Virginia and a surface trough on the lee side of the Appalachians combined with a warm and unstable airmass to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms. A storm in the City of Winchester became severe, producing large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 1:58 PM EST, 3 hours 22 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 258 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID WEEK... PROMOTING A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A RISK OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... 18Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED BREAKS IN THE MID CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...AS A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICES WERE SPINNING ACROSS SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. A WARM FRONT HAD MADE IT NORTH TO NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE...ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS TOWARD THE PENNSYLVANIA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A TROUGH WAS OBSERVED ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. 12Z KIAD RAOB MODIFIED FOR MID 80S T/UPPER 60S TD YIELDED JUST ABOVE 2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. THIS WILL BE REALIZED WITH INCREASING INSOLATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO MODERATE LEVELS OF CAPE...LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME DECENT...MAYBE UP TO 6.5 C/KM. HOWEVER...KIAD RAOB AND 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATED WEAK SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE BETWEEN 18-19Z NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN OF OUR WESTERN CWA AND NEAR THE LEE SIDE TROUGH. STORMS WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THEY FEED OFF A HIGH CAPE/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. IN SUCH A RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE/HIGH MOISTURE AND LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE STRONGEST CELL CORES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DOWNBURST WIND DAMAGE. WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY...CELLS WILL WEAKEN LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS TREND IS DEPICTED BY 12Z NAM AND 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES...AND ALSO SHOWN BY 12Z WRF-ARW SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY GUIDANCE. 12Z GFS GUIDANCE OFFERS SOME DISAGREEMENT TO THIS...AND LINGERS CONVECTION LONGER. THINK THE GFS MAY BE HOLDING ONTO CONVECTION A LITTLE TOO LONG...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF A MORE STRONGLY DEPICTED SHORTWAVE. WILL HOLD ONTO LINGERING LOW POPS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT REMOVE POPS WEST OF THERE WHERE PATCHY FOG MAY BECOME MORE PROMINENT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... CWFA UNDER SAME AMS...W/ ESSENTIALLY SAME RESULT...THRU THE PD. AMS UNSTBL...BUT MOIST /PWAT IN THE 1.75-2.00 INCH RANGE/. THERE ARE TWO INGREDIENTS INHIBITING ORGANIZED TSTMS-- AMPLE LOW-MID LVL MSTR RESULTING IN COPIOUS CLDCVR...AND SFC-H5 RDG LEADING TO A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. INSTEAD...ANTICIPATING WDLY SCT SHRA/TSRA BGNG OF DAY BCMG NMRS TSRA /SOME STRONG/ BY END OF DAY. TRIGGERS WL BE CONTROLLED BY MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LURKING BNDRYS...AND AREAL CVRG/STRENGTH WL ULTIMATELY BE DICTATED BY WHERE AND HOW LONG INSOLATION OCCURS. CANNOT RULE OUT PULSE SVR TSRA...BUT NOT THAT CONFIDENT IN IT EITHER. ODDS IMPV TWD WED...AS THERE WL BE A LTL LESS MSTR IN THE LWR-MID LVLS...LEADING TO A BTTR CHC OF HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. FCST POPS/TEMPS FM 12Z GDNC NOT TOO FAR OFF GOING VALUES. MET MOS MAXT STILL A COOL OUTLIER...AND IT WAS REMOVED FROM MDL BLEND. OTRW...TOOK AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH TWD TEMP AND POP FCSTG. WED WL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE BUNCH. DUE TO DEBRIS...KEPT BKN CLDS...AND LGT S WNDS DUE TO POSITION OF HIPRES. ODDS FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS IMPV SGFNTLY THU...AS CDFNT APPCHS CWFA FM THE W...BRINGG A FOCUSING MECHANISM...AND PSBLY SOME SHEAR. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... CDFROPA CONTS TO SLOW DWN EACH CYCLE DUE TO ITS BCMG PARALLEL TO UPR FLOW. GFS ALSO CONTS TO ATTEMPT TO SPIN UP LTL IMPULSES...TRAVERSING E ALNG BNDRY. W/ THAT IN MIND...NEEDED TO KEEP CHC POPS IN FRI FCST...AND THRU FRI NGT ACRS CNTRL VA/SRN MD. BUT...1026MB HIPRES FM WRN HUDSON BAY/NRN MANITOBA WL PLUNGE INTO ERN CONUS ON BACKSIDE OF AMPLIFYING EAST COAST/WRN ATLC L/WV TROF. HENCE...WL HV DRY FCST WKND-BGNG NXT WK. TEMPS WL BE SEASONABLY PLEASANT TOO /CONSIDER SOURCE RGN/...MAXT LWR 80S/MIN-T MID 50S-MID 60S. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... CHALLENGE FOR TAFS REMAINS CENTERED AROUND AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION POSSIBILITIES. CONVECTION NEAR/ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST AND LEE SIDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN 18Z TAFS...BUT HAVE FINE TUNED CONVECTIVE TIMES A LITTLE TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS IN MODEL GUIDANCE. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CHANNEL UP THE BAY TONIGHT. CANT FIND ANY GUIDANCE THAT DEPICTS SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP WIND SPEED FORECASTS AT 15 KT FOR NOW WHICH IS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL HAVE TO REMAIN VIGILANT ON POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE BAY AND LOWER POTOMAC. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE REPLACED BY NORTHWEST WINDS BY FRIDAY IF A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN SHORT TERM...HTS LONG TERM...HTS AVIATION...PELOQUIN MARINE...PELOQUIN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502- VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-261100- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL- NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE- PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN- ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY- WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL- 344 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA... WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND SHENANDOAH VALLEY THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE WILL PROPAGATE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE EVENING COMMUTE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE EACH DAY...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...PROVIDING THE BEST FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. HTS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 310 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 VAZ026-251945- ROCKINGHAM VA- 310 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT ROCKINGHAM COUNTY... AT 310 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RAWLEY SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COMMUNITIES OF DALE ENTERPRISE AND BRIDGEWATER WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. ROGOWSKI/PELOQUIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 407 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 VAZ026-027-WVZ055-252030- SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV-ROCKINGHAM VA- 407 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN SHENANDOAH...SOUTHERN HARDY AND EXTREME NORTHERN ROCKINGHAM COUNTIES... AT 407 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES NORTHWEST OF ORKNEY SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...IN ADDITION TO OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE COMMUNITIES OF BASYE...MOUNT CLIFTON AND JEROME WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. ROGOWSKI/PELOQUIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 419 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 VAZ027-WVZ055-252045- SHENANDOAH VA-HARDY WV- 419 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST SHENANDOAH AND SOUTHEAST HARDY COUNTIES... AT 419 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF BASYE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF BASYE...JEROME AND MATHIAS WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. ROGOWSKI/PELOQUIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 441 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 WVZ055-252130- HARDY WV- 441 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHEAST HARDY COUNTY... AT 441 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER MCCAULEY...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THIS STORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF MCCAULEY...BEAN SETTLEMENT...RIO AND WARDENSVILLE WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. ROGOWSKI/PELOQUIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 501 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 WVZ050-252145- HAMPSHIRE WV- 501 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST HAMPSHIRE COUNTY... AT 501 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES WEST OF CAPON SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. THE COMMUNITIES OF YELLOW SPRING...CAPON SPRINGS...KIRBY AND DELRAY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. ROGOWSKI/PELOQUIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 553 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 VAZ028-252230- FREDERICK VA- 553 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2007 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT FREDERICK COUNTY... AT 553 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WINCHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. THE COMMUNITIES OF WINCHESTER...STEPHENS CITY AND THE WINCHESTER AIRPORT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE ISSUED. MANNING
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:18 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
An employee of the Winchester Fire Department reported penny size hail at his residence.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 31562.