Hail and Damaging Wind in Wyoming, June 25, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
139 PM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN ND...THRU NORTHWESTERN SD...AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN WY. CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS ALONG THE
FRONT WITH SOME CU JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE BLACK HILLS.
TEMPERATURES ARE HOT WITH MANY READINGS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100.

ANOTHER ACTIVE EVENING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY GETS KICKED SOUTHEASTWARD BY UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING ACROSS THE US/CAN BORDER. MAIN STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FOCUS
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHEAST WY TO WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR TODAY GIVES
A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. EXPECT STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL
TO BE MAIN THREATS THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH
DAKOTA PLAINS.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH
STRONG PRESSURE RISES AND CAA. LOOKS LIKE THE STRONGER WINDS...CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS...WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET BEFORE
SUNRISE. TUESDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S.

WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY MILD WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WHILE THE TAIL END OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS ACROSS THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES. DURING THE DAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
...PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS.

EXTENDED...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE NRN PLAINS
THURSDAY THRU SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL ON THURSDAY WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY THRU THE WEEKEND. TSTM CHANCES WILL
CONT TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH A SFC
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACRS NERN WY/WRN SD TO PRODUCE SCT TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THRU 06Z. TSTMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH LOCAL IFR/MVFR CONDS IN VCNTY OF ANY
TSTMS. OTHERWISE ...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2007

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-261300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1051 AM MDT (1151 AM CDT) MON JUN 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MAIN RISKS FROM ANY
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP AS HIGHS REACH INTO THE 90S TO NEAR 105
DEGREES. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT AND THE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDES NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TODD AND TRIPP COUNTIES IN WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.