Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 16, 2007

Name: Hail and Damaging Winds in Virginia, August 16, 2007
Start: 2007-08-16T15:40
End: 2007-08-16T22:50
Location: Virginia

August 16, 2007 · NWS LWX · 17 events in 10 counties and zones

A cold front moving through the region during the late afternoon and evening on August 16th combined with a moist and unstable air mass to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms across central and northern Virginia. Many of these storms became severe, producing large hail and damaging winds that downed trees and power lines.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $60,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 17

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 16, 2:29 PM EST, 1 hour 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 16, 2:29 PM EST, 1 hour 11 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND STALL LATE FRIDAY AND EARLY
SATURDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE AREA AS A WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY AND LINGER INTO TUE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF
THE REGION BY MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...CHALLENGING FCST FOR TONIGHT AS
MODELS HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
RECENTLY. MCV THAT MOVED THRU THE AREA EARLIER HAS STABILIZED
THINGS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BUT A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SEPARATING HOT HUMID AIR WHERE TEMPS
ARE 100 DEGREES AND LOW TO MID 80S IN THE NORTH. THINK THAT ISOLATED
TSRA IS A POSSIBILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTH WHERE VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS
CUMULUS BUBBLING UP.

ALSO WATCHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR THE IL/IN BORDER WHICH HAS
BEEN MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD AT APPROX. 40 KTS. THIS IS MORE THAN 500
MILES AWAY BUT BEST ESTIMATION IF IT HOLDS UP IT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. 12Z GFS SHOWS AN MCS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TOMORROW BUT ITS LOCATION IS PROBABLY
TOO FAR NORTH. IN THE NORTH...IT WILL PROBABLY BE DRY BUT DID NOT
FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING COMPLETELY DRY GIVEN A WEAK FRONT WILL BE
CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...POTENTIAL FOR MCS TO ROLL ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY TOMORROW. 15Z WRF-ARW INDICATES COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE
CHARLOTTESVILLE AREA WHILE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH. PREFER THE WRF-
ARW SOLUTION. ISOLD TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY SE
OF DCA WHERE MODELS SHOW A LEE-TROF (CONVERGENCE LINE) SETTING UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR FRI NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS AS THE
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

FOR SAT...PLEASANT SUMMER DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES LOW HUMIDITIES AND
BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH PRES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.

FOR SUN...HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT EAST AND OFFSHORE AS A
WEAK SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP. MOISTURE VALUES AND SURFACE DEW
POINTS BEGIN TO EDGE UP BUT REMAIN WITHIN THE COMFORTABLE RANGE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

BY SUN EVENING...WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RETURNING WARM
FRONT THAT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO THE REGION. 12Z GFS SUGGESTS LOTS
OF CLOUDS AS MCV REMNANTS APPROACH THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...TIMING OF ANY MCV-LIKE MOISTURE/PRECIP
DIFFICULT. STILL...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW BRINGING MORE MOISTURE...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SUN NIGHT.

FOR MON AND TUE...FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A FRONT IN THE AREA. TEMPS ON MON WILL BE WARM
WITH LOWER CLOUD AMOUNT. HPC GUIDANCE IS ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR
MON...BUT THAT APPEARS REASONABLE BASED ON LESS CLOUD COVER. THEN ON
TUE...TEMPERATURE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS
AND PRECIP CHANCES. ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

FOR WED AND THU...THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE MOVED NORTH OF THE REGION BY
EARLY WED. EXPECT SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND ONLY
MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE STABILIZED ATMOSPHERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THUS ONLY KCHO MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
TO DIURNAL CONVECTION...SINCE THATS THE ONLY TERMINAL PREVIOUSLY
UNAFFECTED. THERE WILL COVER THREAT WITH VICINITY REMARK. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BLOW OFF FROM MIDWEST CONVECTION...COMBINED W/WEAK
UPGLIDE/LIFT PRODUCING A POTENTIAL MID DECK. SWLY FLOW WILL VEER
NW W/ CDFROPA OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER MCS PREDAWN...BUT
UNCERTAINTY TOO GREAT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.

ONCE CDFNT THRU...QUIET VFR CONDS THRU WEEKEND. AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SCATTERED TSRA MAY PRODUCE LOCAL CIG/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS BELOW SCA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PRES SURGE FCST
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH GOOD PRES RISES. HAVE RAISED SCA FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT ON NW WINDS. MAIN SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON SAT EXPECTED
TO BE SOUTH OF THE WATERS BY EARLY SAT...BUT STILL COULD BE SOME
NEAR-SCA GUSTS FROM THE NW ON SAT MORNING.

FOR SAT THROUGH MID WEEK...EXPECT WINDS TO BE BELOW SCA AS A WEAK
WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE SUN NIGHT AND LINGERS
THROUGH TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LFR
NEAR TERM...LFR
SHORT TERM...LFR
LONG TERM...SMZ
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...LFR

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 16, 11:47 AM EST, 3 hours 53 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-171000-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
1247 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HARRISONBURG EAST TO
FREDERICKSBURG AND POINT LOOKOUT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY OVER THE MARINE WATERS OF
THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY THIS EVENING.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 16, 10:56 AM EST, 4 hours 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1156 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0905 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N PARK MILLS          39.31N 77.41W
08/16/2007                   FREDERICK          MD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN ON PARK MILLS ROAD

&&

HTS

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 3:05 PM EST, 35 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
405 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

VAZ026-029-162030-
PAGE VA-ROCKINGHAM VA-
405 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PAGE AND ROCKINGHAM
COUNTIES...

AT 405 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LINVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
40 MPH.

THE COMMUNITIES OF LACEY SPRING AND SHENANDOAH WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

ROGOWSKI

Special weather statement, Aug 16, 3:30 PM EST, 10 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
430 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

VAZ029-162100-
PAGE VA-
430 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PAGE COUNTY...

AT 430 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
WEST OF SHENANDOAH...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH...SMALL HAIL...A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN TOTALING 1 TO 2 INCHES...AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

THE COMMUNITIES OF SHENANDOAH AND JOLLETT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS
STORM.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED.

ROGOWSKI

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 112 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:39 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

16 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Page

When: August 16, 3:40 PM EST to 3:50 PM EST
Where: Page County, 1 mi E of Shenandoah to 2 mi SW of Jollett
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $30,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.480, -78.612

Law Enforcement reported several trees down in the southern part of Page County. A tree was reported down on a vehicle on Fleesburg Road. Emergency Management reported numerous trees and power lines down along Naked Creek near Furnace. There were also reports of trees down on a few houses.

Thunderstorm Wind, Rockingham

When: August 16, 3:54 PM EST to 3:55 PM EST
Where: Rockingham County, Elkton to Port Republic
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 38.420, -78.620

A Trained Spotter reported large trees down in Elkton. Law Enforcement reported power lines down in Port Republic.

Thunderstorm Wind, Albemarle

When: August 16, 4:19 PM EST to 4:20 PM EST
Where: Albemarle County, 2 mi E of Earlysville
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.170, -78.443

Law Enforcement reported trees down east of Earlysville, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Madison

When: August 16, 4:30 PM EST
Where: Madison County, Aylor
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.430, -78.300

Law Enforcement reported a tree down in Aylor, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Greene

When: August 16, 4:55 PM EST to 4:59 PM EST
Where: Greene County, Ruckersville
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.230, -78.370

Law Enforcement reported numerous trees and power lines down along Route 29 in Ruckersville, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Albemarle

When: August 16, 5:00 PM EST to 5:05 PM EST
Where: Albemarle County, Free Union to 1 mi N of Stony Pt
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.170, -78.570

Law Enforcement reported numerous trees down from Free Union to north of Stony Point.

Thunderstorm Wind, Orange

When: August 16, 5:05 PM EST to 5:15 PM EST
Where: Orange County, Eheart
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.200, -78.320

Law Enforcement reported several trees down across western parts of Orange County.

Thunderstorm Wind, Greene

When: August 16, 5:20 PM EST to 5:23 PM EST
Where: Greene County, 2 mi SW of Ruckersville
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.210, -78.396

Law Enforcement reported trees down southwest of Ruckersville, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Albemarle

When: August 16, 5:25 PM EST
Where: Albemarle County, 2 mi E of Advance Mills
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.180, -78.413

Law Enforcement reported trees down along US Route 29 east of Advance Mills, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Rockingham

When: August 16, 9:30 PM EST to 9:40 PM EST
Where: Rockingham County, Cherry Grove
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 38.580, -78.870

Rockingham County Emergency Management reported trees and power lines down throughout the county.

Hail, Rockingham

When: August 16, 9:35 PM EST
Where: Rockingham County, Elkton
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 38.420, -78.620

A Trained Spotter reported penny size hail in Elkton, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Shenandoah

When: August 16, 9:45 PM EST to 9:48 PM EST
Where: Shenandoah County, 2 mi S of South Jackson
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 38.701, -78.650

Emergency Management reported trees down south of Mount Jackson, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Page

When: August 16, 10:00 PM EST to 10:10 PM EST
Where: Page County, Luray
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $5,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 38.670, -78.470

Page County Emergency Management reported trees and power lines down throughout the county.

Thunderstorm Wind, Madison

When: August 16, 10:02 PM EST
Where: Madison County, 4.92 mi W of Nethers
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 38.580, -78.370

Madison County Emergency Management reported a tree down northeast of Big Meadows, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Rappahannock

When: August 16, 10:10 PM EST to 10:15 PM EST
Where: Rappahannock County, Sperryville
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $3,000
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 38.670, -78.250

Law Enforcement reported trees down throughout the county.

Thunderstorm Wind, Culpeper

When: August 16, 10:39 PM EST to 10:45 PM EST
Where: Culpeper County, Jeffersonton
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $2,000
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 38.630, -77.900

Emergency Management reported numerous trees down in Jeffersonton, VA.

Thunderstorm Wind, Fauquier

When: August 16, 10:45 PM EST to 10:50 PM EST
Where: Fauquier County, Warrenton
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Emergency Manager
Coordinates: 38.720, -77.780

Fauquier County Emergency Management reported trees down in Warrenton, VA.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Virginia in 2007 Every state in 2007 This day in weather history Warnings in Virginia, August 2007

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 51869, 51870, 51871, 51872, 51873, 51875, 51876, 51877, 51878, 51880, 51881, 51882, 51883, 52142, 51886, 51887, 51888.