Extreme Cold in Vermont, March 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
930 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007

.SHORT TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE LOOP SHOWING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK...WITH TEMPERATURES IN MOST LOCATIONS
ALREADY NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
THIS COVERED QUITE WELL...SO NO UPDATES TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECASTS
WILL BE ISSUED.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
RECORD COLD AS ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION.  WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THIS AFTERNOON...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT.  THUS WITH CLEAR
SKIES...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL KICK IN IN ERNEST WITH THE HELP OF
DEEP SNOWPACK.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUNGE WELL BELOW ZERO AND
BREAK A NUMBER OF RECORDS.  GENERALLY LOOKING AT A LOT OF 15 TO 25
BELOW BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF 25 TO 35 BELOW WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS TO 40 BELOW.  WITH THE WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 10 TO 20 BELOW
RANGE AND THUS MOST AREAS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SO WILL
CANCEL WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON.  WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE ON FRIDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN.
LOOK FOR ABOUT A 40 TO 50 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM
FRIDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S ON FRIDAY...THEN CLIMB WELL INTO THE 30S TO AROUND
40 ON SATURDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND 850 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  THE WARMING WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM.  PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.
READINGS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE JUST ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK IN GREAT SHAPE W/ ABV NORMAL
TEMPS FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH SFC
RIDGE SETTING UP TO OUR S AND E...WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO INCR NICELY.
LATEST RUNS SHOW SFC RIDGE A BIT MORE STAGNANT TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH
IN TURN WILL PUSH APPROACHING SYSTEM FOR TUES/WED MORE NORTH INTO
EASTERN CANADA. SO WILL BACK OFF ON POPS...CONCENTRATING MORE FOR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS RIDGE WILL STALL APPROACH OF
BACKDOOR FRNT WED INTO THURS...SO WILL PARE BACK POPS SOMEWHAT...BUT
WILL KEEP RW AS DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE FOR EXTENDED...WITH SOME MIX
WITH -SW IN HIR ELEV...ESPECIALLY DURING EARLY MORN/LATE EVENING HRS.

AVIATION...
VFR COND THRU ENTIRE PERIOD EXPECTED FOR ALL SITES. SOME MVFR FOR
VSBY REDUCTION THOUGH THRU 21Z-22Z FOR KBTV/KMPV FOR BLSN. FEW-SCT
CLD COVER TO GO ALL SKC AFT 00Z...W/ SOME FEW030-035 AFT 11Z-13Z FRI
FROM WEST TO EAST. STRONG GUSTY N/NW WINDS WILL ABATE...GOING
CALM/NEAR CALM. AFT 12Z...WINDS VAR...LGT FROM THE S/SW. NO PRECIP
EXPECTED.

CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING ARE RECORDS FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING...
WHICH APPEAR LIKELY TO FALL AT A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS.

LOCATION         DATE       RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE

BURLINGTON       3/9        -11/1967
MASSENA          3/9        -22/1984
MONTPELIER       3/9         -6/1984
ST. JOHNSBURY    3/9        -22/1923

AS A POINT OF REFERENCE...WEST BURKE VT...A LONG-RUNNING CO-OP SITE
IN NERN VT...HAS ONLY RECORDED A TEMPERATURE BELOW -30F IN MARCH
ONCE /-34F ON MARCH 4 1950/. THIS ALL-TIME MARCH RECORD WILL LIKELY
BE APPROACHED TONIGHT THERE AND OTHER LOCATIONS AROUND THE CWA. THE
MARCH LOW TEMPERATURE RECORD AT KBTV IS -24F ON 3/4/1938. THE KBTV
LOW TEMPERATURE OF -18F RECORDED ON WEDNESDAY WAS TIED FOR 4TH
LOWEST EVER IN MARCH. BURLINGTON CLIMATE RECORDS DATE BACK TO
1883.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WGH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
348 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-092100-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
348 PM EST THU MAR 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO RECORD LEVELS MUCH
LIKE THOSE EXPERIENCED WEDNESDAY MORNING. READINGS WILL FALL AS
LOW AS 15 TO 25 BELOW ZERO BY FRIDAY MORNING. A NUMBER OF
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST VERMONT WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE WITH LOCALIZED VALUES TO 40 BELOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

EVENSON