Flooding and Hail in Texas, October 10 to 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
329 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT MOVING EWD ACROSS NERN NEW
MEXICO GENERATING SOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND HIGH BASED SHOWERS FROM
SERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. SYSTEM IS PRETTY COMPACT AND
THE CONVECTION TOWARD CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IS LIKELY DRIVEN MORE BY
STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND COOL TEMPS
ALOFT. THUS EXPECT THIS EVENING TO SEE MUCH OF THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY STAY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A GENERAL REDUCTION IN
CONVECTION AS THE EVENING WEARS ON FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM THE
DYNAMICS OF THE TROUGH. THUS WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ONLY IN
THE NWRN FCST AREA...EXPECTING LESS THAN MENTIONABLE CRITERIA LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NCNTL AND NERN ZONES.

MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ON LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZE TONIGHT COMBINED
WITH PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER...INCLUDING POSSIBILITY OF STRATUS ON
THE CAPROCK TOWARD SUNRISE IN AREA OF LOWER LOW LEVEL DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...WILL YIELD WARMER LOW TEMPERATURES THAN SEEN THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF THE CAPROCK MAY END UP COOLER THAN THOSE ON THE
CAP GIVEN FACTORS MENTIONED ABOVE.

THURSDAY WILL SEE SLIGHT INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AS RIDGE BUILDS
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO INDUCE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS SERN COLORADO AND A LEE
SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS. CONVERGENCE
AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY POINT TO POSSIBILITY FOR SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...BUT MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CAP STRENGTH AS HEIGHTS
INCREASE AND MID LEVEL TEMPS RECOVER IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS SHORT
WAVE. ATTM WILL MAINTAIN TREND TOWARD MAINTAIN THE CAP AND THUS THE
LESS THAN MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE GRIDS. PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE. GUIDANCE NUMBERS
CONCUR AND ARE ACCEPTED.

.LONG TERM...
A SMALL CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THU/FRI
MORN AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAVERSES THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
THE LOW-LVL JET INTENSIFIES. CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ON THE NOSE OF THE
LLJ SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FIRST ACROSS SE NEW MEXICO AND THE
WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND THEN AS THE FLOW SLOWLY VEERS IT SHOULD
MIGRATE NE ACROSS THE FA AND INTO THE SE PANHANDLE BY FRI MORN. AS
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY INTACT ACROSS WTX IN THIS TIME FRAME
ANY TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ISOLATED. AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT POPS
UNDER MENTIONABLE LEVEL...BUT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH. BY FRIDAY
AFTN...SFC LOW/TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING FROM SE COLO TO THE TX/NM
BORDER. THE GFS AND NAM DIFFER ON THE POSITION OF A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING E-SE FROM THE LOW...WITH THE NAM FURTHER SOUTH...BUT IN
EITHER CASE IT APPEARS THAT THIS POSSIBLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL BE NORTH OF THE FA FOR FRIDAY.

BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
4-CORNERS REGION. SFC LOW/TROUGH SHOULD REFORM FURTHER WEST AND
DEEPEN DURING THE DAY...PRODUCING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS WTX. SAT MORN...WAA PRODUCED BY THE LLJ MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW STRATUS ON THE CAPROCK. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW THAN THE GFS. TIMING WILL BE IMPORTANT TO
OUR TSTM CHANCE SAT AFTN/EVE. LOW-LVL MOISTURE SHOULD HAVE RETURNED
TO THE AREA AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SFC TROUGH. FCST CAPE/SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS
THAT MIGHT DEVELOP MAY BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. BUT THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT
MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER DARK...AND LESSEN THE TSTM
CHANCES/SEVERITY. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING WINDY CONDITIONS TO
DEVELOP BY SAT AFTN. DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INCOMING TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEEPER ECMWF VERIFIES...TSTM
CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORN AND THEN SHIFT EAST
AS PAC-TYPE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TSTM CHANCES MAY REMAIN
ACROSS THE EASTERN ROLLING PLAINS AND SE PANHANDLE INTO SUNDAY EVE
DEPENDING UPON THE ACTUAL SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN...TIMING WILL
BE KEY FOR TEMPS ON SUN AS THE W-NW ZONES MAY SEE SOME CAA WHILE THE
E-SE ZONES AMY REMAIN QUITE WARM. A COLD FRONT THEN FOLLOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT/MON MORN WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS TO THE WHOLE
AREA...HIGHS IN THE 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH DRY WX.
BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. GFS
SUGGESTS THIS MAY HAVE SOME EFFECT ON ON OUR WX ON WEDNESDAY BUT A
LOT OF VARIANCE REMAINS. INHERITED GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        55  83  54  85  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
TULIA         54  83  56  85  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
PLAINVIEW     55  81  57  85  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
LEVELLAND     56  84  58  86  57 /  10  10  10  10  10
LUBBOCK       57  85  59  86  59 /  10  10  10  10  10
DENVER CITY   57  83  58  86  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
BROWNFIELD    56  85  58  87  58 /  10  10  10  10  10
CHILDRESS     54  85  58  83  60 /  10  10  10  10  10
SPUR          58  85  59  85  61 /  10  10  10  10  10
ASPERMONT     56  85  60  85  62 /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07/33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
645 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

TXZ021>044-112345-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
645 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ROAM THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS EVENING. HAILSTONES UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH MAY OCCUR
FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WIDESPREAD SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED. SPOTTER GROUPS
SHOULD MONITOR LOCAL CONDITIONS...HOWEVER...AND BE READY TO
PROVIDE SPOTTER REPORTS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
621 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

TXZ022-023-110000-
CASTRO TX-SWISHER TX-
621 PM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS WESTERN SWISHER AND EASTERN CASTRO
COUNTIES...

AT 614 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF HAPPY...OR ABOUT 13 MILES
NORTHEAST OF DIMMITT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

BRIEF...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH...HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN
DIAMETER AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

KW