Heavy Snow and Winter Weather in Texas, December 14 to 15, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
403 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES RATHER COLD OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWFA TODAY. A FEW AREAS
RECEIVED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE AS DRIER
AIR FILTERS IN ACROSS THE WEST/SOUTHWEST.

A PROGRESSIVE AND COMPACT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS WITH
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX DEVELOPING FIRST ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLE. COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 03 TO 06Z. THE CHANGEOVER
COULD BE SLOWER OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER (ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST)
WHERE SOME CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
30S/MIDDLE 40S.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE EXACT SETUP OF FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z.
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS WITH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON RUNS TRENDING TOWARD ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE CENTRAL TIER FROM MORTON TO LUBBOCK TO GUTHRIE. WE
ARE STILL FAVORING THE NORTHERN TWO ROWS FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN ROW. NAM-WRF TIME
SECTIONS SHOW STRONG OMEGA LIFT IN THE FAVORED -10 TO -20 DENDRITIC
ZONE IN THE ADVISORY AREA OVER A 5-6 HOUR PERIOD OVERNIGHT. THIS
SHOULD YIELD A BURST OF MODERATE SNOW.

INITIAL LIFT WILL BE LIGHT AND WITH MARGINAL TEMPS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTH...A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED. AS COLDER AIR
FILTERS IN...WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 03Z.

SNOWFALL WILL RAPIDLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 12Z WITH
CLEARING AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE WITH EXPECTED SNOWFALL. KW

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAYS LINGERING CHILL WILL LEAD TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WITH FLATTENING GRADIENT AND NIPPY TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT.
UNSURE HOW SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...IF ANY REMAIN...MIGHT FACTOR INTO
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN
A NOTCH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA JUST BECAUSE. THEN NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE COMING WEEK WITH ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING PERSISTENT. STILL LOOKS LIKE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
WEDNESDAY AS A VIGOROUS WAVE OR SERIES OF WAVES PASS TO THE NORTH
LEADING TO A WINDY DAY THEN...AND PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF
COOLING THURSDAY. BUT AT LEAST MINOR MODERATION VIA THE DOMINANT
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD OCCUR AFTERWARDS. MCQUEEN

&&

.AVIATION...
SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG WITH LOW CIGS AND VSBY CONCERNS AFTER
03Z. ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TAPERING OFF AFTER
SUNRISE.  KW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        23  38  19  47  22 /  80  10   0   0   0
TULIA         23  36  20  46  23 /  80  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     25  37  20  47  25 /  80  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     26  41  21  51  26 /  70  10   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       27  40  21  49  26 /  80  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   28  44  21  51  28 /  20  10   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    28  43  21  52  27 /  30  10   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     28  35  20  44  25 /  80  20   0   0   0
SPUR          29  40  23  49  25 /  60  20   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     32  44  25  51  26 /  30  20   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>038.

&&

17/05/17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
417 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007

TXZ021>044-151200-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
417 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WINTER WEATHER

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS TONIGHT. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER THIS EVENING BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT. ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM ACROSS
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS. SEE THE LATEST SNOW ADVISORY (WSWLUB) ISSUED
BY THIS OFFICE AT 334 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SNOWFALL WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID SATURDAY MORNING WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED BY MIDDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LOCAL OFFICIALS AND RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
345 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007

TXZ039>044-150400-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PLAINS...DENVER CITY...BROWNFIELD...
TAHOKA...ODONNELL...POST...JAYTON...ASPERMONT
345 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2007

...PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TONIGHT...

A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION TONIGHT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
STORM SYSTEM WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT
PASSING NORTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

A LIGHT WINTRY MIX MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND CHANGE TO
LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.

THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
THE LOW. A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH COULD PLACE THE REGION UNDER
STRONGER LIFT AND HEAVIER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. AS IT STANDS
RIGHT NOW...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A DUSTING TO LESS THAN ONE INCH
CAN BE EXPECTED. IF HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW DEVELOP FURTHER
SOUTH...ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

KW