A moderate strength low pressure complex remained stationary in the Gulf of Alaska from the 12/15 to 12/17. Warm air was moving over cold air at the surface on the east side of the low centers which affected Zones 17 and 19.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
A moderate strength low pressure complex remained stationary in the Gulf of Alaska from the 12/15 to 12/17. Warm air was moving over cold air at the surface on the east side of the low centers which affected Zones 17 and 19. Upslope conditions were focused in the Haines area. Temperatures warmed at the surface on the seventeenth, and new snow near sea level was compacted by rain on that date.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 14, 6:00 AM AKST, 12 hours 16 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1100 AM AST FRI DEC 14 2007 .SYNOPSIS... .SHORT RANGE...THE MAIN LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA IS RATHER STRETCHED OUT WITH ONE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE ONE OF THE CENTER WILL SWING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND FRONTAL BAND IS SPREADING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND ADVISORIES CURRENTLY ONGOING. RIGHT NOW THE TIMING FOR THEM STILL LOOKS OKAY AND THEY SHOULD BE DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED OVER THE NORTH AND THE YAKUTAT AREA. EXPECT MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. .LONG RANGE...THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MON HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS BUT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THERE IS LARGE SCALE DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT HAS RESULTED IN DIFFERENT TRACKS AND STRENGTHS IN SURFACES LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. AFTER READING THE NCEP FOECAST DISCUSSION THEY TOO AGREE WITH THIS. THEY THINK THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION COULD HAPPEN BUT EACH HAS A DIFFERENT SOLUTION. SO WITH THAT SAID WILL NOT CHANGE THE CURRENT GRIDS FROM MON AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI BUT BEFORE THAT WILL USE A BLEND OF THE 12ZGFS40 AND 12ZECMWF. THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIP LINGERING SAT NIGHT FROM THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SE AK. THE WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING DEVELOPING LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PHASE WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG NE PACIFIC THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLE AS THE TROF BECOMES STRONGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY DOWN THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE LOW THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WILL SLOW THE PROPAGATION MORE. THE LOW WILL ROLL UP THE COAST OF THE PANHANDLE AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 973MB BY SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THROUGH MON. PRECIP WILL INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP LAYER OF SE WINDS SO SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHERN HALF AND PASI WILL NOT SEE THAT MUCH PRECIP TO BEGIN. BY THAT NIGHT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NORTH AND OVER MOST OF THE AREAS AS THE MAIN VORT MAX/TROF MOVES OVER THE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR PAYA WHERE THEY WILL JUST HAVE A CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP AS MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL BE SOUTH. THE MOST DIFFICULT PART WITH THIS LOW WILL BE THE P-TYPE FOR PAEL-PAJN LINE AND NORTH. THINKING SOUTH OF THERE WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS THERE IS SOME WARM AIR WITH THE SYSTEM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE INCREASING OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH SUN SO THERE WILL SOME DOWNSLOPING TO BRING SOME COLDER AIR. WILL KEEP A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON THEN GO ALL SNOW AS THERE WILL SOME DIABATIC COOLING WITH INCREASE PRECIP RATES AND WEAK WINDS IN SHELTERED AREAS. FOR THE FOR NORTHERN AREAS SNOW AS THEY WILL BE ABLE TO PULL IN MORE COLDER AIR FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL VARY DEPENDING ON THE SNOW RATIO BUT WILL BUT IN AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES. AS FOR WINDS WITH THIS LOW...THERE WILL BE A STRONG NORTHERLY GRADIENT AS THIS LOW DRIFTS NW SO THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL CRAFTS TO EVEN MIN GALES IN NORTH/SOUTH CHANNELS. ALSO THERE MAY BE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 45KT NEAR INTERIOR PASSES AS THE GRADIENT FROM BC TO THE GULF WILL BE STRONG. ONCE THE LOW MOVES INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF THERE WILL BE SOME COLD AIR GETTING WRAPPED AROUND THE WEAKENING LOW SO THE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY MIX WITH SNOW OR CHANGES ALL THE WAY LATE SUN INTO MON. STILL UNCERTAIN AS THERE IS A LONG FETCH OVER THE OCEAN THAT MAY MODERATE THE TEMPS. .AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PUBLIC...WIND ADVISORY AKZ023-027-028 MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ033-035-036-041>043 ...SMALL CRAFT ADVY PKZ011>013-021-022-031-032-034-051-052
2 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Haines Customs observed 7.0 inches of new snow for 24 hours ending 0700 on 12/15. Analyses indicated that all of this new snow fell on the night of 12/14. The snow was rapidly compacted by rain early on the morning of 12/15.
The Yakutat office observed 6.0 inches of new snow beginning at 0340 and ending at 0900 on 12/16.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 71890, 71889.