Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, April 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
710 PM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE RIVER AND OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO INDICATE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
COUNTIES IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO THE RIVER. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN
IS FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH BOTH NAM AND GFS SUGGESTING THE PASSAGE OF
BOTH A WEAK COLD FRONT AND A 500 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH
THE BRO CWFA. STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) MENTIONS POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE (WIND) GUSTS AND HAIL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
CAN DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS DUE TO COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...
COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT MOISTURE...AND AFTERNOON HEATING. SPC ALSO
MENTIONS THAT STORM MOTION WILL KEEP MOST STORMS THAT FORM ON
MEX(ICO) SIDE OF RIO GRANDE AWAY FROM TX. THEREFORE...HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO INDICATE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. NO OTHER GRID
CHANGES MADE BEYOND THURSDAY MORNING...AND UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
PACKAGE ALREADY ISSUED.
&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN MARINE WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT OF SVR TSTMS WED PM OVR THE LWR TX GULF WATERS. THESE
STRONG TSTMS WILL PRODUCE WND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS...AND MAY
REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WED. REMEMBER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ALWAYS BE HIER IN AND NEAR TSTMS...SOMETIMES TWO OR MORE TIMES HIER.
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY NOON...
MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD OFFSHORE
BEFORE DECREASING AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER FRONT ON
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS AND HIGHER
SEAS ONCE AGAIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE WEEK
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THIS UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 KTS THRU
SUNSET...BECOMING LIGHT OVRNGT. STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS OUR AMS DESTABILIZES AND A WEAK BOUNDARY FM
THE N ASSISTS IN THE LIFTING PROCESS. SVR TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR HRL...MFE AND BRO AERODROMES WED PM. ALSO...SOME IFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN WED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  70  81  68  77 /   0  50  50  20
BROWNSVILLE          72  84  66  78 /  10  50  50  20
HARLINGEN            71  87  64  78 /   0  50  50  20
MCALLEN              72  88  66  82 /  10  50  50  20
RIO GRANDE CITY      71  87  67  83 /  10  50  50  20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   71  77  68  76 /   0  50  50  20
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TOMASELLI/66
MARINE/AVIATION...PHILO/58
HMT/MESO...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
423 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

TXZ248>257-040930-
ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
423 AM CDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY
ALOFT INTERACTS WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE COLD FRONT. UNORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE CURRENTLY
THE MAIN THREATS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS WEEK AS SEAS
OFFSHORE BUILD TO NEAR SEVEN FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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