Drought in Tennessee, July 1 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
929 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.UPDATE...
COOLER EVENING TEMPERATURES AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A
DAMPER ON CONVECTION ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AN EXCEPTION WAS
SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION MOSTLY NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES...WHICH AS
OF THIS WRITING WAS SLOWLY DIMINISHING. 9 PM TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA
RANGED FROM 73 IN VINEMONT TO 82 AT MUSCLE SHOALS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
WEST WINDS.

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 9 PM WAS NOTED FROM JUST
NORTH OF JACKSON TN TO AROUND THE CHATTANOOGA AREA. NORMAL DIURNAL
COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD HELP PUSH THIS BOUNDARY FURTHER
SOUTHWARD. NEW OUTPUT FROM THE NGM/NAM SHOW THIS...WITH THE 18Z GFS
THE FURTHER NORTHWARD. THE LATER MORE NORTHWARD POSITION SHOWS MORE
CONVECTION GOING OVER THE VALLEY FOR JULY 1ST...WHILE THE NGM/NAM
WERE DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD WITH PRECIP CHANCES. AM LEANING
TOWARD THIS NEWER SOLUTION...THUS MAYBE FEWER STORMS TOMORROW.

ANYWAY FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...WILL REDUCE RAIN CHANCES TO LESS
THAN 20 PERCENT WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. SHOWERS NOTED OVER THE MID
SOUTH...ALONG WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS
AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SUGGEST KEEPING JUST A MENTION
JUST IN CASE A LIGHT SHOWER GETS GOING. TEMPERATURES FORECASTS FROM
THE DAY CREW LOOK FINE. LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT ARE
ALSO IN ORDER. VERY PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN AND NEAR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED WETTING RAINS EARLIER TODAY. WILL
NOT MENTION FOG IN THE FORTHCOMING UPDATE.               RB
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ANTICIPATING ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE CONVECTIVE WX AFTERNOON (SWOMCD
JUST ISSUED FOR POSSIBLE SVR WATCH)...SO ISSUING AFD A BIT EARLY.
FEW MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. SYNOPTICS
TRANSITION TO WEAK NW FLOW THIS WEEK...WITH A POSSIBLE COLD
FRONT AGAIN SHOWING UP LATE THIS WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL DICTATE FINAL AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
TONIGHT. VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR SHOWS INITIAL CU/TCU FIELD
EXPLODING ACROSS N MS THROUGH MIDDLE AL IN CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
THETA-E/CAPE RIDGE. MU CAPES IN THIS ZONE ARE OVER 3000 J/KG. 8H-
3H MEAN FLOW SHOULD BRING N MS ACTIVITY INTO THE SHOALS 18-20Z.
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY IN WEST CENTRAL-CENTRAL AL WILL
LIKELY MIGRATE DEVELOPMENT INTO TN VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A
RELATIVELY COOLER BUBBLE WHERE AIR IS MORE STABLE ACROSS NE AL
AND EASTERN SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN SHOULD HOLD OFF DEVELOPMENT. THIS
IS ALSO WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
STRATUS/FG DEVELOPED. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE DECENT WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST THREAT S AND W WHERE
HIGHER MUCAPE PRESENTS.

LONGER TERM...
HAVE KEPT CHC POP IN THE SUNDAY (LOWERED FROM 40 TO 30 PCT)...
PENDING FURTHER COORDINATION AND EVALUATION. I DO BELIEVE
THERMODYNAMICS WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE OVER LOCAL AREA...WITH LOW
LEVEL NORTH FLOW BEGINNING TO ADVECT MORE STABLE CP AIR IN FROM THE
N. IN FACT...THE GFS FORECASTS DEW POINTS (RESULTING FROM ADVECTION
AND MIXING) DOWN INTO THE 40S AND 50S MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN RATHER HOT TEMPS (M-U90S)...BUT WILL STAY CONSERVATIVE FOR
NOW OPTING FOR MORE CONSISTENCY.  MCVS CONTINUE TO BE GENERATED BY
THE NAM...ONE OF WHICH MIGRATES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF ON
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS PREFERRED LACKING THIS FEATURE...BUT DOES CARRY
LARGER SCALE 5H TROF AXIS THROUGH TUE NIGHT INTO WED. IN EITHER
CASE...AIRMASS SHOULD BE STABLE AT THIS POINT. WILL KEEP DRY
FORECAST IN THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ENLARGED DIURNAL RANGES OVER
GUIDANCE.                                KULA
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
934 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011100-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
934 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY STRONG.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THE WORK WEEK...AND A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY...AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

MR/PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
750 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NORTH COURTLAND         34.68N 87.31W
06/30/2007                   LAWRENCE           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES.

0615 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SE LEIGHTON           34.67N 87.49W
06/30/2007                   COLBERT            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN

0625 PM     TSTM WND DMG     COURTLAND               34.67N 87.32W
06/30/2007                   LAWRENCE           AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

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