Flood in Oklahoma, July 1 to 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
940 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

.DISCUSSION...
VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN OSAGE AND
PAWNEE COUNTIES WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  AS LOW LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CIRCULATION EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.

QPF AMOUNTS REMAIN PROBLEMATIC AS TIGHT GRADIENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER.  DID INCREASE PRECIP
AMOUNTS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  MAJOR
RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...INCLUDING POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING FLOODING IN
BARTLESVILLE ALONG THE CANEY RIVER. IF HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS
TODAY OR TONIGHT ACROSS THIS BASIN...RIVER FORECAST WOULD LIKELY GO
EVEN HIGHER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ064-
     OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067.

AR...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
800 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

...ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST
   OKLAHOMA...

...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG THE CANEY...VERDIGRIS AND
   DEEP FORK RIVERS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ON TOP OF
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND THROUGH TONIGHT..ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE THE SIGNIFICANT RISK OF FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE. IN ADDITION...HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY
OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WILL PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN A VERY SHORT TIME. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. SEE /OKCFFATSA/ FOR DETAILS.

IN ADDITION...MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.  SEE /OKCFLSTSA/ FOR DETAILS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLOODING AND BE
PREPARED TO ENACT LOCAL FLOOD PROCEDURES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED AND MOVE TO
THE SOUTHWEST...HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL. THUS...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AT LEAST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH TIME AFTER SUNDAY.
LATEST DATA SUGGESTS THAT DRIER AIR MAY FINALLY MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS CLOSELY
AS FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

OKZ057-063-010115-
CRAIG OK-DELAWARE OK-
747 PM CDT SAT JUN 30 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN CRAIG

AT 747 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF KETCHUM TO 2 MILES SOUTH OF
CLEORA TO 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ZENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
ZENA...CLEORA...GROVE...BERNICE AND KETCHUM.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3652 9510 3647 9503 3641 9489 3665 9465
      3667 9484 3666 9503