Hail in South Dakota, July 18, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
112 PM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...19Z ANALYSIS HAS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NEBRASKA WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO
CENTRAL MONTANA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH DAKOTA IS NOSING DOWN INTO
THE AREA...PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
BLACK HILLS AT THE MOMENT. WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS
THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITHIN THE LAST HOUR.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH 3 KEY
INGREDIENTS AVAILABLE...SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AREA...WITH PROGRESSION
EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF SHEAR AND CAPE AVAILABLE
TO SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...COULD SEE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINS ALSO. ACTIVITY SHOULD
PROGRESS TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES BY THE WEEKEND.

EXTENDED...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO ABOVE
100 WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING THE REGION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THERE
IS A POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ON ANY GIVEN
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BLACK HILLS...HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS
SMALL...SO HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
835 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-191300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
835 AM MDT (935 AM CDT) WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS ALSO LIKELY AS STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING.

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST STORMS FORMING OVER THE
BLACK HILLS AROUND MIDDAY. THE AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE ROCKIES. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK HILLS WILL
SURPASS THE 100 DEGREE MARK SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL BE
MAINLY DRY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

MJB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
912 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             11 S OKREEK             43.21N 100.38W
07/17/2007  E0.88 INCH       TODD               SD   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL WITH 60 MPH WIND.

&&

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
931 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 S OKREEK             43.21N 100.38W
07/17/2007  E60 MPH          TODD               SD   PUBLIC

&&

WETENKAMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1011 AM MDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 SSE OKREEK            43.26N 100.32W
07/17/2007  E60 MPH          TODD               SD   PUBLIC

&&

WETENKAMP

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