A stagnant weather pattern persisted over Eastern Kentucky. Warm, moist, unstable air allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop once again during the afternoon and evening hours of July 18th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A stagnant weather pattern persisted over Eastern Kentucky. Warm, moist, unstable air allowed for scattered thunderstorms to develop once again during the afternoon and evening hours of July 18th. Some of these storms became severe, producing large hail and damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 2:42 PM EST, 56 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 342 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 .SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...UPDATED FAIRLY OPAQUE MID CLOUD HAS HINDERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHERN 1/3 OF THE CWFA. BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EARLY WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH BEST INSTABILITY...SHIFTING BACK TO THE NORTH LATE AS THE FRINGE OF MCS ACTIVITY COMES INTO QUESTION. KEPT LOW POPS ALL GROUPS TONIGHT...FOCUSED EARLY SOUTH AND LATER NORTH. NEW GUIDANCE TEMPS AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE BUT WILL USE RANGES TO ACCOUNT MCS DEVELOPMENT FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OVER IL/IN...BUT 850/300 THICKNESS AND STEERING WINDS SUGGEST ONCE SYSTEMS GET GOING THEY COULD CLIP OUR AREA. THIS WILL ALSO PLAY HEAVILY INTO THE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND/OR BOUNDARIES WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. AT ANY RATE...BY AFTERNOON WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOST OF THE DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD PUSH BACK NORTH OF THE AREA. WENT CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE. SYSTEM WHICH COMES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE PRETTY FAVORABLE KINEMATICS/DYNAMICS FOR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR. STRONG (40+ KT) MID LEVEL FLOW AND MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD LEAD TO AN IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE WHICH WE ARE FORECASTING TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN 00 AND 07Z. SPS WILL BE ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THREAT. GIVEN QUICK TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...AND THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM...I LIKE THE FASTER PRECIP EXIT DEPICTED ON THE NAM/NGM MODELS. CARRIED CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST EARLY FRIDAY...THEN A QUICK DRYING. THE REST OF THE SHORT RANGE LOOKS VERY NICE AS DRY AIR MOVES IN. .LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...UPDATED ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR THE EAST COAST... ALONG WITH STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE A FANTASTIC WEEKEND. THAT IS...ASIDE FROM THE FACT THAT WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH DROUGHT. WILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS AT LEAST AS LOW AS THE 50S. THE LOW DEW POINTS WILL ALSO PROVIDE COMFORTABLE DAYTIME CONDITIONS BY JULY STANDARDS...EVEN WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE 80S. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THE PICTURE BECOMES MORE MURKY TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...BOTH RUN-TO-RUN AND IN THE ENSEMBLE...SHOW A RANGE OF UPPER AIR PATTERNS POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION IS... HOW MUCH OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER - VERSUS - TO WHAT EXTENT THE MASSIVE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD. IT DOES LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE ADVECTING MUCH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY OVER TIME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUALLY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND TEMPS. HAVE OPTED FOR A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND A 20 PERCENT POP STARTING ON TUESDAY... SIMPLY DUE TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY OF PATTERN EVOLUTION. && .AVIATION.../18Z TO 18Z/ INITIAL BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS FORMED ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MOVED THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. NEW SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS FIRING NOW IN THE SOUTHWEST...AND WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT LOZ AND SME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FURTHER NORTH CONVECTION HAS BEEN A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER 21Z AT JKL. LATER...MVFR MIST WILL FORM AT MOST LOCATIONS...AND WHERE RAINS FALL SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY OCCUR. NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE AFTER 18Z TOMORROW...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JOHNSTONE LONG TERM...HAL AVIATION...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 352 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191100- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- 352 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LINE WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND REACH AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. JOHNSTONE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 330 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 KYZ114-182000- OWSLEY- 330 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT NORTHERN OWSLEY COUNTY THROUGH 400 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... AT 330 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR PEBWORTH... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM CAN EXPECT WIND GUST UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR SCOVILLE AROUND 335 PM EDT...BOONEVILLE AROUND 340 PM EDT...EVERSOLE AROUND 345 PM EDT...COWCREEK AROUND 350 PM EDT...RICETOWN AROUND 355 PM EDT... HAL
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 403 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 KYZ114-182030- OWSLEY- 403 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT OWSLEY COUNTY THROUGH 430 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... AT 403 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CONKLING... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LUCKY FORK AROUND 410 PM EDT...MISTLETOE AROUND 415 PM EDT...AND WHOOPFLAREA AROUND 425 PM EDT. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. PELTON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 404 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-191115- FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE- JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN- ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT- OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...MOUNT STERLING... OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...IRVINE...STANTON...FRENCHBURG... MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...SOMERSET...LONDON...MONTICELLO... WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO... PINEVILLE...HARLAN...SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE... CAMPTON...SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...BEATTYVILLE...JACKSON... HINDMAN...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...MANCHESTER...HYDEN...WHITESBURG... INEZ...PIKEVILLE 404 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT... A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS KENTUCKY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. THE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO A SQUALL LINE...AND WITH STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE. THE LINE WILL LIKELY AFFECT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND REACH AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE AND VIRGINIA BORDERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS LINE...BUT HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. JOHNSTONE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 415 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 KYZ069-182100- JACKSON- 415 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT JACKSON COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... AT 415 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR MCKEE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER THEN LIGHTNING IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE A HAZARD. PELTON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 425 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 KYZ058-111-182100- ESTILL-LEE- 425 PM EDT WED JUL 18 2007 ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN ESTILL AND SOUTHWESTERN LEE COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... AT 425 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALUMBAUGH... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR LEIGHTON AROUND 430 PM EDT...PINNACLE AROUND 435 PM EDT...WILLOW SHOALS AROUND 445 PM EDT...OLD ORCHARD AROUND 455 PM EDT...BANFORD AROUND 500 PM EDT... RESIDENTS SHOULD EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL IN THESE AREAS. PELTON
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:36 UTC.
7 hail, 6 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees down at Route 421 and Soaptown Road blocking lanes.
Hail nickel size and slightly larger fell for 20 minutes.
Numerous trees down along Highway 421 between McKee and Gray Hawk.
Public report relayed by dispatch. Occurred on Spencer Ridge Road.
Quarter size hail reported at McKee dispatch center.
Tree down on Welchburg Road.
Two trees down on old Winchester Road. One tree down on Pecks Creek Road and another on Oak Ridge Drive.
Quarter size hail and estimated 50 mph winds. Quarter size hail started falling at 707 pm and ended at 712 pm.
Couple of trees down.
Trees down on Tomishmael Road off Highway 32.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 46145, 46351, 46352, 46353, 46336, 46337, 46340, 46354, 46349, 46350, 46343, 46355, 46356.