Hail in South Carolina, June 29, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
304 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY...THEN STALL OUT. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND BRING DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOWS
WARM SOUTHERLY AIR BACK TO THE CAROLINA REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR
THE I-77 CORRIDOR. LAPS ANALYSIS GENERALLY SHOWS 1500-2000 J/KG
ACROSS THE CWA...A FEW POCKETS OF 2500 OR GREATER REMAIN IN THE CLT
METRO AND THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. DCAPE TRENDS FROM 300-400
J/KG ALONG THE FOOTHILLS TO 600-800 J/KG ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONGER MID STORM WIND FIELDS THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS LONGER
LIVED CLUSTERS...POSSIBLY LASTING TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER EAST OF THE
MTNS. SEVERE EVENT TOTALS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.

LITTLE CHANGED IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. I WILL KEEP
LIKELY POPS INTO LATE THIS EVENING...DROP TO CHC OVERNIGHT...AND
INCREASE SAT AFTERNOON TO HIGH CHC TO LIKELY EAST. CONDITIONS CHANGE
VERY LITTLE FROM TODAY TO SAT AFTERNOON. SPC DY2 KEEPS THE SLGT RISK
BASICALLY FOR THE CWA EAST OF THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE GFS DOESN/T BRING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH AS QUICKLY AS THE
NAM SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH BOTH IMPLY THAT CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR
OUT OF THE NC ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE
SC AND GA ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WHILE THERE IS A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL CONNECTION BETWEEN THE SRN
PLAINS UPPER LOW AND THE SRN MID ATLANTIC STATES ATTM...WHICH SHOWS
UP WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR AND CAN BE IMPLIED BY HIGH MODEL LAYER RH
VALUES IN THIS AREA...THE MOIST CONNECTION LOOKS TO WEAKEN SOME BY
SUNDAY. THE SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO HANG UP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...SO
WHILE THE DEEP LAYER RH MAY NOT BE A HIGH...THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ON MONDAY. THE TREND THE PAST FEW
DAYS HAS BEEN TO BE SLOWER WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...SO WHILE I HAVE
A DRY FORECAST ON MONDAY...IT IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE LINGERING
SURFACE CONVERGENCE COULD INITIATE CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEAMPLIFY THE ERN CONUS LONG WAVE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN REDEVELOP A STRONG TROF
WED-FRI. TUE LOOKS DRY WITH ISOLATED STORMS RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS WED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST. A STRONG
FRONT SHOULD DROP TOWARD THE AREA THU/FRI. THE 12 UTC GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC IMPLYING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON THU
WITH A FROPA THEREAFTER...WHILE THE EC KEEP PCPN IN BOTH THU AND
FRI. THE LATTER IS WHAT HPC HAS DONE AND I/VE FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF
PACKAGE. SHRA AND TSRA HAVE INITIATED WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS YESTERDAY. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN NEAR KHKY
AND KAVL UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE SHOULD CREEP EAST...BRING
THE CHC TO KCLT AND KGSP/GMU LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL
FORECAST VCTS FOR THE TERMINALS AND WILL INCLUDE A EARLY TEMPO FOR
KHKY.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN FOR THE AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCED RAINFALL. I WILL HIGHLIGHT KAVL AND KHKY FOR FOG LATE
TONIGHT. TIMING OF THE FOG WILL BE BASED ON OBS OF LAST NIGHT AND
THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. IT APPEARS THAT KAVL COULD SEE IFR FOG
CONDITIONS AFTER 9Z...KHKY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. FOG WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND 13Z.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-301800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-301800-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NED

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