Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, January 15, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 AM EST MON JAN 15 2007

.OVERVIEW...
ITS NOT PRETTY OUT SIDE OVERALL, BUT AT LEAST YOU CAN DRIVE IN IT,
BUT DO BE CAREFUL IN THE FOG AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SUSSEX CO
NJ AND CARBON CO PA WHERE SOME FREEZING PCPN IS FALLING. TIED A HIGH
TEMP RECORD ON SAT AT GED WHEN IT REACHED 69, PREVIOUS WAS IN 1950.
MAY SEE A RECORD BROKEN TODAY IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PUSHED
NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SFC BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PA/MD BORDER AND HAS NOT
MEANDERED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE EAST. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST REMAINING STATIONARY AND THE APPROACHING
NORTHERN BRANCH, THE PRECIPITATION IS BECOMING ORIENTED MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AS EXPECTED. STARTING TO SEE THE SURFACE LOW
ON MOVE FROM EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY AT 10 PM TO SOUTHERN INDIANA
AT 1 AM. ONE SMALL WAVE WAS ANALYZED OVER CENTRAL PA BUT HAS SINCE
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TEMPERATURE ATOP HIGH
POINT IN NORTHWEST SUSSEX CO NJ HAS DROPPED TO 30 DEGREES. THERE IS
STILL SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION/DRIZZLE FALLING WHICH IS PROBABLY
MAKING THE TOP OF THE MOUNTAIN SLIPPERY, BUT TWO THIRDS OF THE WAY
DOWN FROM THE SUMMIT(1803 FT) THE TEMPERATURE IS 36 DEGREES WITH A
DEW POINT OF 34.

RADAR SHOWS THE HEAVIEST PCPN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE NEXT
WAVE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. IF I SEE ANOTHER AREA OF BETTER THAN 27DBZ, IM GOING
TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH IT WILL
INVOLVE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TODAY IS NOT A HOLIDAY FOR EVERYONE
SO THERE WILL BE SOME TRAFFIC HERE AND THERE.

THE MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OFF ON THE PRECIPITATION FIELD AT THIS HOUR
OF THE MORNING. THEY ARE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH THE MEASURABLE PCPN.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A STIFF 80H WIND OF 40-50 KT AND SO THE PCPN WILL
BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE THICKNESS BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONT. BUT ILL START SOME ZONES WITH JUST CLOUDY THEN...
RAIN DEVELOPING IN SOME OF MY SOUTHERN ZONES, ALTHOUGH -DZ WILL BE
ABOUT. ANOTHER PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS GOING TO BE THE FOGGY
ENVIRONMENT. DOVER HAS SOUTH WINDS OF 7 MPH WITH A TEMPERATURE OF 58
BUT JUST UP THE ROAD AT WILMINGTON WINDS ARE NE AT 10. AND
WITH THE WATER TEMPS(EVEN ON THE RIVER) IN THE UPPER 40S, FOG WILL
BE A PROBLEM IN PRECIP FREE AREAS WHERE NO MIXING IS PRESENT.

ANOTHER QUESTION IS THE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CFA. WERE BRIEFLY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A PLUS 12C AT 80H AND THE
STRONG 80H JET. CAN WE MAKE IT TO 70 IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE HIGH
UPSTREAM ON SATURDAY FREQUENTLY TOPPED 70 IN VIRGINIA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN MD. THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS OVER EXTREME SRN NJ YESTERDAY
MORNING AND WITH ANY LUCK TODAY WE COULD REACH 70. SINCE THIS IS THE
LAST WELL SEE TEMPERATURES GETTING THIS HIGH, I THINK WE GOT A GOOD
CHANCE AND IF THE 80H WIND IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PUSH THE SFC FRONT
NORTH, ITLL HAPPEN. BY THE WAY, THE RECORD FOR GEORGETOWN DE IS 70
DEGREES SET IN 1995.

IF YOU ARE GOING TO BE OUT AND ABOUT AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT GET
READY TO PASS THROUGH TWO SEASONS. THE FINAL WAVE ON THE FRONT IS
GOING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
FRONT MOVING OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL PULL DOWN MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK AND ITLL FEEL MUCH COLDER
ACCOMPANIED BY A NORTHWEST WIND. ANY PRECIPITATION AROUND IS GOING
TO CHANGEOVER TO SLEET THEN SNOW SHOWERS BY DAYBREAK.  ALSO...ANY
LARGE STANDING PUDDLES OR RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL FREE  AND CAUSE
SOME ICY SPOTS. SOME WILL BE DISPERSED BY THE WIND, BUT NOT ALL OF
IT. FOLLOWING THE FRONT AND A REFRESHING NW WIND, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD EAST AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH SWEEPS BY AND ROTATES INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THE NOTICEABLE TEMPERATURE DROP OCCURS MONDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL BE FELT BY COMMUTERS ESP ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST IS GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM.
ON FRIDAY WE GET MOISTURE FROM BOTH WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH BUT MAY COMPLETELY MISS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY. REINFORCED SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH BROADENING
TROUGH IS  GOING TO SWING DOWN AND CAUSE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE
NEW JERSEY COAST THEN THE LOW DEEPENS AND TRACKS NORTHEAST TO NOVA
SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. WITH THE SSTS THIS FAR NORTH, LIKELY TO SEE
MORE SFC SYSTEMS FORMING FARTHER NORTH THAN WHAT WE USUALLY SEE OFF
OF NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-MORNING AS
THE STALLED FRONT MEANDERS NORTHWARD.  THERE COULD BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR, AT LEAST AT SOME LOCATIONS LATER
TODAY.  AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH AND A LOW MOVES ACROSS IT, THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR IMPROVING VSBYS OR CIGS WILL BE THE SOUTHERN
TAF SITES.  CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR EVERYWHERE BY LATER
TONIGHT OR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
THROUGH AND STRONG W TO NW FLOW TAKES OVER CLEARING THINGS OUT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT, WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT.  THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BE
KICKED SOUTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION.

SCA HEADLINES ARE ALREADY POSTED.  HOWEVER, BASED ON THE LATEST
WAVEWATCH DATA AND TO BETTER BLEND WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES, WILL
EXTEND THE TIME OF THE SCA TO 00Z WEDNESDAY. LATEST BUFKIT AND OTHER
DATA INDICATES THAT GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW GALES ON TUESDAY.
NEEDLESS TO SAY, THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE RAISING
OF THE GALE FLAGS LATER ON AS A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS MOVES OVER
WARMER WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ055.

NJ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001.

DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

OVERVIEW/SHORT/LONG TERM...EBERWINE
AVIATION/MARINE...NIERENBERG

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