Flash Flooding in Arkansas, January 15, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1054 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ISSUED FINAL UPDATE FOR THE EVENING...THIS TO TAKE CARE OF TIME
SENSITIVE WORDING IN THE ZFP. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RAIN
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE STILL REMAINS A FLOODING THREAT OVERNIGHT MAINLY
DUE TO RAIN SOAKED GROUND AS OPPOSED TO HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...

MADE A MINOR UPDATE TO THE FORECAST ON THE WINDS. THE STATIONARY
FRONT HAS MADE A MOVE TOWARDS THE NORTH AND IS NORTH OF JONESBORO
AS OF 02Z. A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AT THIS TIME. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD EXTENDS DIAGONALLY ACROSS ARKANSAS AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE MAIN RAIN BAND MOVES EAST TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT TIME FOR RUNOFF AND RISING RIVERS AND STREAMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND STRETCHES FROM A LINE NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS TO STUTTGART ARKANSAS. A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS
LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
BANDS OF HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PUSH INTO PORTIONS
OF EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. WILL CONTINUE WITH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z. LATER
TONIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE CWA...THE FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO SAG SOUTHWARD. AS THE FRONT MOVES SO WILL THE RAIN BANDS
THUS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME
RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. EXPECT A WIDESPREAD RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE 30S TO THE 50S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL EXIT CWA BY MID MORNING. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO DROP DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY THUS HIGHS WILL OCCUR
AT 12Z. RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY AS DRIER
AIR ALSO FILTERS INTO THE AREA. SOME RAIN MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A
CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE PRECIPITATION COMES TO
AN END AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT. THINK MODELS ARE HOLDING PRECIP
ON TOO LONG SO WILL LEAVE MENTION OF CHANGEOVER OUT OF FORECAST FOR
NOW.  WILL END PRECIP CHANCES AT MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEKEND...COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES WILL CLEAR BUT TEMPERATURES WILL
FEEL CHILLY. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE 30S WITH LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WARMING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW
TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MIDSOUTH IN
AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND MOVES
EASTWARD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE THAT SOME
PRECIP COULD BE OF THE WINTER TYPE BUT WITH IT BEING SO FAR OUT AND
THE RECENT INCONSISTENCIES WILL NOT MENTION ANY WINTER PRECIP YET.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-
     CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-
     RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-MARSHALL-
     PANOLA-QUITMAN-TATE-TUNICA.

TN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-OBION-
     SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

KRM/VALLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-151200-
ALCORN-BENTON(MS)-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE(AR)-LEE(MS)-
MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
338 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED TONIGHT FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...PART OF WEST
TENNESSEE...AND PART OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. THE FLOOD WATCH
AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO SOMERVILLE TENNESSEE TO PARIS TENNESSEE. THE WATCH
INCLUDES MEMPHIS...JONESBORO AND JACKSON.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS EVENING FROM
ABOUT PARIS TENNESSEE TO MEMPHIS TO STUTTGART ARKANSAS. LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS WILL CAUSE MORE RAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
RAIN SOMETIMES HEAVY. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD
LATER TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT WILL TOTAL
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD RELAY ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

KRM