Coastal Flood in Pennsylvania, January 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EST MON JAN 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HAPPY NEW YEAR, WELCOME TO 2007 WHAT A DREARY WAY TO RING IN THE
NEW YEAR WITH THE RAINFALL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. IT COULD BE
WORSE, WE COULD BE SNOWED IN LIKE THE PLAINS, OR HAVE SEVERE
WEATHER, SO WERE NOT DOING TO BAD IN THAT RESPECT. NEVERTHELESS,
WE ARE DEALING WITH RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND WILL BE FOR
MOST OF THE MORNING HOURS. THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN
OCCLUDED 996 LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN,
WITH ITS OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD LAKE ERIE.
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CAROLINA, THEN TURNS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN, ALL THE WAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFF CAPE COD, AND A BROAD
1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST AND EXTENDS
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE MAIN BATCH OF RAIN MOVED INTO THE AREA RIGHT AROUND MIDNIGHT,
AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAIN WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING TOWARD LATE
MORNING, AND PROGRESSING THROUGH BY MID AFTERNOON. WE WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE EVENING HOURS, AND
OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE UPPER TROUGH HANGS
AROUND AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS OF COURSE GOING TO BE THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INITIAL COLD FRONT. IT IS VERY
DIFFICULT FINDING ANY INSTABILITY, AND THE ONLY LIGHTNING STRIKES
SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE WAY DOWN IN NORTH CAROLINA, THEREFORE,
WE HAVE TAKEN THE MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST. EVEN
WITHOUT THE THUNDERSTORMS, THERE STILL MAY BE SOME BRIEF, MODERATE
TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING ON LOCAL ROADWAYS.
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN OVERNIGHT ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
FREEZING RAIN. THERE MAY HOWEVER BE A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE SUNRISE
WHERE SOME SNOW MIXES IN, BUT THIS SHOULD END AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES, SO WE WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SNOW OUT FOR TODAY. AFTER
THE SECONDARY FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH PASSES OVERNIGHT, WINDS MAY GET
A LITTLE BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST LATE TUESDAY, BRINGING VERY NICE
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY PASSES OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE TUE-THU PERIOD WILL STILL BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE GULF STATES AND MOVE TOWARD OUR
REGION LATER THU. THE LATEST HPC PROGS SHOW THE SFC LOW TO BE NEAR
KCVG AT 12Z FRI AND IT WILL SPEED TO NEAR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
CANADA BY 12Z SATURDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL NOT CROSS OUR
AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. THE HPC PROGGED
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL, SO
AT THIS POINT IT SHOULD BE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. CHANCE POPS ARE
BEING USED IN THE EXTENDED FCST FOR THIS TIME.

BEYOND NEXT SATURDAY, THE FORECAST MODELS CONT THE TREND OF BREAKING
DOWN THE PACIFIC JET THAT HAS BATHED ALL OF NOAM IN MILDER AIR. THE
EPO TELECONNECTION INDEX WHICH HAS BEEN POSITIVE (MILDER WEATHER FOR
US) HAS HAD A BIT OF PERSISTENCE NOW AT FORECASTING A SWITCH TO
NEGATIVE AROUND JANUARY 11TH. MEANWHILE IN THE OTHER POND THE NAO IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLIGHTLY POSITIVE. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO IS
FCST TO BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO CANADA AND LEAVES US CLOSER TO
THE COLD FENCE THAN WE HAVE BEEN FOR A WHILE. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT OUR NEIGHBOR TO THE NORTH WILL GET COLDER (RELATIVE
TO NORMAL) BUT UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MANY AND THE STRENGTH OF THE
SOUTHERN INTRUSIONS THESE AIR MASSES FROM CANADA WILL BE DURING
1/7-1/13. WITH THE NAO FCSTD TO REMAIN NEUTRAL/POSITIVE THESE COLD
AIR MASSES AT LEAST THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL NOT BE BLOCKED FROM
EXITING EWD. BY THE BY THE LATEST COMPUTER GENERATED CPC OUTLOOK FOR
THIS PERIOD GIVES US A GREATER CHANCE OF BEING WARMER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
PRE-DAWN MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING
IN THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. AN INCREASED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
CAN BE ANTICIPATED BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE, LITTLE WAS CHANGED ON THE OCEAN WATERS. I DID
EXTEND THE SCA THROUGH TOMORROW. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL OCCUR FROM TIME TO TIME THIS MORNING INTO TUESDAY.

SCAS WERE TAKEN DOWN ON DELAWARE BAY TODAY, BUT WERE ISSUED FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WITH WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S, WELL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT AND COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEFORE SEEING FREQUENT GUSTS TO OR IN EXCESS OF 25 KT.
THE PRE-FRONTAL INVERSION IS QUITE STRONG AND WILL HAMPER MIXING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
     TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...OHARA/GIGI/MIKETTA
AVIATION/MARINE...KRUZDLO

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