Winter Weather in Pennsylvania, December 4, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
905 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING NOVA SCOTIA WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE, AN ALBERTA CLIPPER, WILL SKIRT BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EXIT OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
ROCKIES THROUGH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AS ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A COUPLE OF PLANS FOR THE NIGHT. THE FIRST IS TO EXTEND THE WIND
ADVY THRU IT. WHL THE LATEST GFS RUN SLIGHTLY WEAKENS THE GRAD TWD
MRNG, ITS FCST BUFKIT SOUNDING IS MORE NEARLY ADIABATIC THRU 850 MB.
MEANWHL THE WRF-NMM TIGHTENS THE GRAD OVRNGT, BUT ITS FCST SOUNDING
IS NOT AS NEARLY ADIABATIC. OTHER RANDOM ELEMENT ARE THE FLURRIES
AND ISOLD SHSN. SOME GUSTINESS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH THEM. UPSHOT IS
ITS ABOUT A ZERO SUM GAIN OVERNIGHT AND DON/T SEE THE PTNL
DIMINISHING (WHETHER IT COMES TO FRUITION OR NOT) THRU THE NGT. ITS
ALSO PSBL THAT THERE MIGHT BE ONE LAST BURST OF HIER WINDS DURG THE
MRNG HRS ON TUE, BUT WILL LET MID CREW SEE IF THE NEW SOUNDING RUN
FOLLOWS A SIM PATH.

SECOND, IT IS PRETTY COLD ALF AND COUPLED WITH THE LAKE EFFECT
BANDS, ITS PRETTY APPARENT ON RADAR REFLECTIVITY. WE BASICALLY
BEEFED THE WORDING FOR FLURRIES AND ADDED SHSN TO ALL THE ZONES N OF
THE CHANNELIZED VORT MAX AS SEE NO REASON THIS WILL DIMINISH THRU
THE NGT. SOMEONE WILL WAKE UP WITH A SMILE ON THEIR FACE TOMORROW
MORNING (FRESH COATING OF SNOW). WE SUPPOSE THERE WILL BE SOMEONE
NOT SO HAPPY TOO. THE AREAL CVRG RIGHT NOW APPEARS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE ACCUMS EXCEPT FOR OUR HIER TRRN ZONES. TEMPS/DEWS AND WINDS
LOOK OK FOR THE OVRNGT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST IS PROGGED BY BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY
WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL
TROUGH...SNOW FLURRIES ARE A POSSIBILITY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK SOUTHEAST AND EXIT THE VIRGINIA COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS INDICATE THIS LOW WILL TRACK
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE PHI CWA, WHICH MEANS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN MOST OF PA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, WITH A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY WHEN MAX TEMPERATURES MAY RISE ABOVE FREEZING DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM IS MOISTURE-
CHALLENGED, AND SO NO MAJOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HI PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA ON THU. WE WILL BE BANKING ON
THE NEW SNOW ON THE GROUND IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA TO KEEP
MAX TEMPS BLO 40F. THE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN PCPN ASSOCD WITH THE CFP
ON FRIDAY TOOK ANOTHER TWIST WITH THE GFS SLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF THE
PCPN TIL FRI NGT AND SAT. THE STGST SHORT WAVE IS STILL PROGGED TO
MOVE THRU ON FRI AND WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE BETTER CHANCES IN FOR
FRI AND FRI NGT. HI PRES IS NOT IN AS AN IDEAL POSN AS IT WAS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO DELIVER SUSTAINED COLD AIR. THUS WE WENT CLOSER TO A
CLIMO FCST WITH BASICALLY SHSN IN OUR NWRN CWA/A MIXTURE IN THE
CENTRAL PART OF OUR CWA AND SHRA NEAR THE COAST. AFTER THAT TROFFING
IN THE WRN CONUS AND THE RE-EMERGENCE OF THE SERN CONUS RDG WILL
START A MILDER STRETCH FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT
LOW PRES THAT WILL EMERGE FROM THIS TROF IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NW OF
OUR CWA WITH ITS COLD FRONT COMING THRU LATE IN THE DAY MON. MODEL
THERMAL FCST PROFILES SUGGEST THE NEXT PCPN EVENT ON SUN AND MON
SHOULD MAINLY A LIQUID EVENT WITH JUST THE POTENTIAL OF SOME
FREEZING RAIN AT THE START FOR OUR FAR NWRN ZONES. WE WENT WITH MEX
MOS GUID ON SAT GIVEN THERE STILL MIGHT BE SOME FRESH OR NEW SNOW
AROUND FROM FRI. AFT THAT WE SIDED CLOSER TO HPC GUID WHICH WAS
WARMER ON BOTH SUN AND MON GIVEN 850MB FCSTD TEMPS OF BTWN 0 AND 5C
AT THE START OF THE DAY ON SUN AND AROUND 10C AT THE START OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WITH
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WORKING ITS MAGIC, IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
HAVE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THEREFORE WE
HAVE INSERTED SOME VCSH IN ALL TAFS. TIMING ANY LOWER CIGS OR VSBYS
IS GOING TO BE DIFFICULT AT THIS POINT SINCE IT SHOULD BE RATHER
BRIEF, SO WE WILL NOT INSERT LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS POINT AND
UPDATE AS NEEDED. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW, BUT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, THEY SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.

BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPPING TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ARE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIP, BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING AND OVERALL
QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST TO NW WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGH TONIGHT. BUOY 44009 REPORTING
GUSTS TO UP TO 40 KT AND SEAS AT 8 TO 9 FT. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KT ARE
ALSO BEING REPORTED ACROSS DEL BAY.  GALE WARNINGS ARE ALREADY
POSTED AND LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON CURRENT AND EXPECTED
CONDITIONS.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
SFC LOW NR NEW ENG AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS CAUSED THE STRONG
WINDS.  AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.TIDES...
THE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CAUSE WATER LEVELS TO BE LOW
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL TIDE CYCLES. SITES ALONG THE BAY AND UP TOWARD
PHILLY HAVE HAD DEPARTURES NEAR MINUS 3 FT AT HIGH TIDE, BUT AS LOW
TIDE APPROACHES AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THERE AFTER, THE
DEPARTURES SHOULD RETURN TO MINUS 1.5 TO 2 FEET, WHICH SHOULD
PREVENT THE NEED FOR A LOW WATER ADVISORY. SITES ALONG THE COAST ARE
NEARING THEIR LOW TIDE, AND THEY LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD END UP AROUND
1 FT BELOW, WELL ABOVE LOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-
     067>071.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012>027.
DE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 12 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA/GIGI
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...MIKETTA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...LN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...LN/ROBERTSON
TIDES...LN/ROBERTSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
912 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

NJZ001-PAZ054-055-050215-
SUSSEX-CARBON-MONROE-
912 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ007-008-PAZ060>062-050215-
WARREN-MORRIS-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
912 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND EAST
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ009-010-012-015-PAZ067>069-050215-
HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-
912 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013-014-016>027-PAZ070-071-
050215-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-
CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
912 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-050215-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
912 PM EST MON DEC 3 2007

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 PM EST TUESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.