Flash Flooding and Hail in Oklahoma, June 19 to 20, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
215 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE
HAS BECOME EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ALONG BOUNDARY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF
5000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. LATEST GFE
GRIDDED CIN CALCULATIONS INDICATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS
WEAKENED NEAR THE VICINITY OF BOUNDARY OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY
WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH STRONGER 0-6KM FLOW LOCATED ALONG
THE OK/KS BORDER. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WOULD
LIKELY BE MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE
HAIL. GIVEN LOW LEVEL FORCING REMAINS WEAK...OVERALL CONFIDENCE
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS LOW.

MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NORTH OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT. ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT SO THE
POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE MCS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN KS...PUSHING INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFICULTY WITH THE MCS
POTENTIAL/TIMING...WITH NAM/WRF SWEEPING CONVECTIVE LINE THROUGH
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GFS KEEPS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WEST OF AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL THEREFORE GO ABOVE BOTH MET/MAV GUIDANCE
CONCERNING FIRST PERIOD POPS. REMAINDER OF FORECAST STAYED FAIRLY
CLOSE TO MEX THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH DRY FORECAST AS UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DAYS 3-7 COMPARED TO MEX GIVEN THE
RECENT HEAVY RAINS/GREEN VEGETATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  90  73  92 /  50  20  10  10
FSM   71  91  69  92 /  20  20  10  10
MLC   71  89  70  91 /  30  20  10  10
BVO   67  89  70  92 /  30  20  10  10
FYV   66  86  65  87 /  20  20  10  10
BYV   66  86  67  87 /  20  20  10  10
MKO   71  88  70  91 /  30  20  10  10
MIO   70  89  71  91 /  30  20  10  10
F10   70  88  70  90 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   72  90  72  92 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1255 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...MAINLY EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WAS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CAPES
WERE AROUND 3000 J/KG BUT THE CAP WAS STRONG.  THE CAP MAY
WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY DIISIPATE THIS
EVENING.  HOWEVER...OTHER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS.  THESE STORMS MAY FORM A COMPLEX WHICH COULD
TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.  DAMAGING WIND
MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW STORMS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WITH THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
TAKE CONTROL OF THE WEATHER.  DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
507 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

ARZ019-192245-
CRAWFORD AR-
507 PM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL CRAWFORD

AT 507 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
WEST OF DYER...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CONCORD...ALMA...KIBLER...SHIBLEY...
FURRY...DYER AND RUDY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3560 9409 3546 9409 3546 9412 3543 9416
      3539 9414 3539 9433 3543 9433 3544 9435
      3563 9425