Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, August 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
143 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK THROUGH OHIO TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO EARLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
MCS OUTFLOW AND SHOWERY ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH NRN CWA AT
ISSUANCE TIME. HIGHLIGHTED THE QUICKLY MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM
AS STORMS IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO ARE WEAKENING AS THE SOURCE
REGION ENTERS A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS FOR PROPOGATION
AND BACK BUILDING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUT DOWN A STABLE AIRMASS IN
ITS WAKE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO WORK WITH TODAY
WITH REGARDS TO THUNDERSTORMS. LEFTOVER WEATHER THIS MORNING
SHOULD BE CONFINED EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF COLUMBUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE MCS WILL PUT DOWN A STABLE AIRMASS IN ITS WAKE AND THE COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL HAVE LITTLE TO WORK WITH WITH
REGARDS TO UNSTABLE AIR AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CUT
THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BACK SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY AND REMOVED
THEM TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT GETS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...IT MAY
GET A BOOST AS THE AIR TO THE SOUTH WILL STILL CONTAIN ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TODAY WILL
PROBABLY BE LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICIES WERE NOT ADJUSTED FOR THIS UPDATE
TO EXPEDITE THE TRANSMISSION OF THE PRODUCTS. WILL TAKE A CLOSER
LOOK FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AND SEE IF THE POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 ARE STILL VALID FOR SOUTHERN CWA IN
AND AROUND THE OHRIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MID LEVEL FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME A BIT MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRENGTHENS SOME
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THINK THE GFS MAY BE A
LITTLE SLOW PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL GO WITH MORE OF A BLEND BETWEEN IT AND THE FASTER NAM AND NGM.
WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH SKIES BECOMING
MOSTLY SUNNY. ALSO PREFER HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY CLOSER TO THE COOLER
MET/FWC NUMBERS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY
FLATTEN OUT THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...ALLOWING FOR FLOW
TO BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS OUR AREA. IN THE WESTERLY FLOW...A
SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION. TIMING
IS DIFFICULT WITH THESE THOUGH SO THINK THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE IT AT
THIS POINT IS TO GO WITH A GENERAL 30 POP FOR A GOOD PART OF THE
EXTENDED. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PCPN WOULD BE
IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME PERIOD SO WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE
POPS THEN AND THEN BUFFER A PERIOD ON EITHER SIDE WITH A 20 POP.

AFTER AN INITIAL COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPS BACK UP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE A LONG DISCUSSION. LINE OF TSTM WILL
MOVE THRU NRN TAFS THRU 11Z. BULK OF LIFT WILL GO E WITH THESE.
FRONT PUSHES S THRU TATFS THIS AFTN. SRN TAFS MIGHT SEE AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT WILL ONLY
CARRY A CB.

OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...FRANKS
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...FRANKS
LONG TERM...LOTT
AVIATION...SITES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
115 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-061>065-074-170515-
HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-
CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-
FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-HOCKING-
115 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 601 IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY
OF OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

INZ050-058-059-066-OHZ060-070>073-080-082-170515-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-PREBLE-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-
ROSS-HIGHLAND-PIKE-
115 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF
OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND NORTH OF THE REGION. SOME OF
THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

INZ073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ077>079-081-088-170515-
RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-
CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HAMILTON-
CLERMONT-BROWN-ADAMS-SCIOTO-
115 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST
OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

IN ADDITION...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.