Damaging Winds in Ohio, April 3, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
310 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AFTER FROPA AND WX THIS EVENING...TEMPS OVER THE NRN 1/2 OF CWA WILL
FALL FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. WED HIGH TEMPS
WILL OCCUR AT DAYBREAK WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ANYWHERE FROM A 4 TO
A 7 DEG DROP IN TEMPS FROM 12Z TO 0Z. OVER SRN 1/2 OF CWA THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE DROPS TEMPS THROUGH 18Z AND THEN RECOVERS THEM AT
21Z TO JUST ABOVE WHERE THEY STARTED OUT AT IN THE MORNING.

HAVE PUT 100% CLOUD COVER WHERE MODELS SAY CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE
COLD AIR FOR BOTH WED AND THURS. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE ISOLD
SHRA IN THE AFTERNOON WED BUT FEEL THAT MAJORITY OF PRECIP OVER
OHVLY WILL BE PASSING SPRINKLES AND COULD OCCUR PRACTICALLY
ANYWHERE. THICKNESSES DROP OVERNIGHT WED TO CHANGE ANY RAIN SHOWERS
TO SNOW SHOWERS...HAVE DROPPED A CHANCE OF MEASURABLE ON THURS FOR
SCT FLURRIES IN THE NE CLOSER TO COLD POOL.

LINE OF CONVECTION COMING INTO CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TEMPS NEAR 80 AHEAD OF IT WITH DEWPOINTS OF UPPER 50S BEING ADVECTED
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE LINE. ENOUGH SHEAR AND FORCING WITH THE
LINE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BELIEVE THE BEST
THREAT FOR SVR WILL BE ALONG AND S OF I-70...PARTICULARLY W OF
DAYTON EARLY IN THE EVENING. MUCH FURTHER N OF I-70 IT APPEARS THAT
IT MAY BE CUT OFF FROM THE WORST OF IT DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY
WITH CLOUD COVER.

FRANKS
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TAKING UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS...WEATHER WILL BE MAINLY DRY. FOR FRIDAY...KEPT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG OUR NORTHERN FRINGE DUE TO A RATHER VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROUGH. WITH NO MAJOR
WEATHER-MAKING FEATURES EVIDENT FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...KEPT
REST OF FORECAST DRY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
A REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT TUESDAY. SAW NO REASON
TO DIFFER MUCH FROM HPC GUIDANCE...WHICH IS OVER 20 DEGREES BELOW 30
YEAR AVERAGES. FOR A DETAILED DISCUSSION ON THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
COLD ON THE WEEKEND...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
HTTP://WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/DISCUSSIONS/PMDEPD.HTML.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
GUSTY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION AT WHICH POINT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH. AT THIS POINT EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF
SITES UNTIL AFTER 23Z. BEST CHANCE OF GETTING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 04Z AND 06Z. THERE MAY BE IFR VISIBILITY AND
CEILINGS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
ALTHOUGH THESE CLOUDS MAY SCATTER FROM KILN SOUTHWARD. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO RAISE TO VFR AFTER 12Z. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>095-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>055-060>064-070>072-077-040945-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-HARDIN-
MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-
CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-
PICKAWAY-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-HAMILTON-
254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 112 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL
OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING DUE TO THE RECENT
WARM WEATHER...ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
PROTECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD ACTIVATE.

KYZ096>100-OHZ056-065-073-074-078>082-088-040945-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-LICKING-FAIRFIELD-ROSS-
HOCKING-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
254 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO AND SOUTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 10 PM AND 2 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL END QUICKLY WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE GROWING SEASON IN FULL SWING DUE TO THE RECENT
WARM WEATHER...ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
PROTECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.