A strong low pressure system and jet stream moving across the region created a tight pressure gradient over western and central North Dakota. This resulted in high winds during the morning and afternoon hours of Tuesday, November 13th.
Every event with a place to put it; 24 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.
A strong low pressure system and jet stream moving across the region created a tight pressure gradient over western and central North Dakota. This resulted in high winds during the morning and afternoon hours of Tuesday, November 13th. Mesonet data showed the highest wind gusts in excess of 65 mph across parts of Mclean County. Sustained winds greater than 40 mph were common over the entire warned area throughout the day.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 3:46 AM CST, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 346 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2007 .SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CHALLENGES/HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS SET TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FIRE WEATHER ALSO A HIGH CONCERN TODAY (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS). MODELS IN VERY NICE AGREEMENT OVERALL THIS MORNING SO UTILIZED A GENERAL BLEND THROUGH THURSDAY. CURRENTLY...FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS CENTRAL ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG LOW PRESSURE RESIDES UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...WITH WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE LOW RESULTING IN VERY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER MOST OBSERVING SITES THIS MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN MILD HIGHS TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL ACROSS THE REGION...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOWS COLD FRONT...WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES IN NORTHWEST MONTANA. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP DEPICTING SOME LIGHT ECHOS SCATTERED ABOUT THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THUS FAR NO REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS OF 3AM THIS MORNING. THIS WAS EXPECTED WITH VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND 600-500MB. PRIMARY CONCERN IS STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL...QUICKLY SPREADING EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT OVER NW MONTANA QUICKLY PUSHES EAST INTO NORTHWESTERN ND BY 12Z THIS MORNING...AND INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA BY 18Z. CAA AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE FROPA WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO AROUND 55 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF MY WESTERN COUNTIES AND MUCH OF MY CENTRAL BY 18Z. WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA WILL BE A BIT WEAKER...BUT STILL ADVISORY LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT OF SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED AROUND 40 MPH WILL GO AHEAD WITH A HIGH WIND WARNING OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND MOST OF CENTRAL ND 15Z THIS MORNING THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL FALL UNDER A WIND ADVISORY. SOME QUESTION AS WHETHER HIGH WIND CRITERIA WILL BE MET THOUGH. DO NOT THINK GUSTS WILL BE VERIFIED...HOWEVER BOTH GFS AND NAM BUFFER SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH 35KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE OVER THE WARNED COUNTIES. STRONG CAA AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT ADVISORY LEVELS LOOK TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY DAYTIME. THIS MAKES THINGS A BIT TRICKY...AND WANTED SOME WIND HEADLINES THROUGH THIS ENTIRE PERIOD. THUS AFTER THE HIGH WIND WARNING EXPIRES AT 3Z THIS EVENING...WILL GO WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WINDS WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST INTO THE REGION AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES. WILL KEEP ISOLD LIGHT SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AS WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP PUSHES SOUTH FROM CANADA. COOLER AS WELL WEDNESDAY UNDER THE STRONG CAA...WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THURSDAY WILL SEE RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHTLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION. .LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE DAY 4-5 PERIOD WILL BE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OVERALL VERY FEW CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. GFS/ECMWF START OUT IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT 12Z FRIDAY WITH MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND EASTERN CANADA WITH RIDGING OVER FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S AND CANADA. STRONG ONSHORE AND NEARLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN MODELS MODEL DIFFERENCES QUICKLY APPEAR WITH MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OVER THEN NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH COLDER OVER THE REGION. ONE THING MODELS DO AGREE ON IN THE DAY 4-5 TIMEFRAME IS A PERSISTENT AREA OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION BETWEEN A LEE LOW OVER THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND A BLOCKING HIGH TO THE EAST. GFS/ECMWF/GLOBAL GEM ARE ALL GENERATING SOME LIGHT QPF OVER THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. EXACT PLACEMENT DIFFERS AND AGAIN AMOUNTS ARE LIGHT AS WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE ROCKIES WILL LIMIT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. RAISED MINIMAL POPS AND BUMPED UP SKY COVER A BIT BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT INCREASE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AS PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE. && .AVIATION... WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS TODAY AS VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE IF SOME WRAP AROUND MVFR CLOUDINESS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL MAKE INTO INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE DURING THE DAY TODAY PROBLEM WILL BE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF WINDS AS THEY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .FIRE WEATHER... HAVE EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECTING HIGH WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH ALONG WITH ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO AROUND 55 MPH. IN ADDITION...PERCENT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT WILL GREATLY ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS WINDS START TO WEAKEN AND HUMIDITIES INCREASE. STRONG WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER AS TEMPERATURES COOL. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 031>034-040>044. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025- 031>037-040>048-050-051. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>034- 040>044. WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ035>037-045>048-050-051. && NH/TWH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 547 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2007 NDZ035>037-045>048-050-051-141200- BURLEIGH-KIDDER-STUTSMAN-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-LA MOURE-MCINTOSH- DICKEY- 547 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG BY MID DAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM CST TODAY THROUGH 6 PM CST THURSDAY. FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS LOW FUEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 9 AM CST TODAY TO 9 PM CST TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SEE LATER FORECAST UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>034-040>044-141200- DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD- MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS- FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT- BOWMAN-ADAMS- 547 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2007 /447 AM MST TUE NOV 13 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS LAKE WINNIPEG BY MID DAY AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRANSITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 9 PM CST OR 8 PM MST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING BUT REMAIN SUSTAINED AT 30 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REPLACE THE WARNING ONCE IT EXPIRES THIS TONIGHT. FIRE WEATHER WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS LOW FUEL MOISTURE...DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS...STRONG SURFACE WINDS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 60F WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE GROWTH. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 9 AM CST TODAY TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. LOW FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS AND STRONG WINDS WILL HELP TO PROMOTE POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY. SEE LATER FORECAST UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AYD
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
27 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Observation from North Dakota DOT observing site in Grassy Butte.
This report is a Bowman (BPP) ASOS observation.
Amidon, Slope County.
Medora, Billings County.
Beach, Golden Valley County.
Killdeer, Dunn County.
This report is from the remote automated weather station near New Town.
Observation in New Salem recorded 58 mph sustained winds. Another report 6 ESE Saint Anthony (APRS) recorded sustained winds of 41 mph with 55 mph gusts.
This report is from the remote automated weather station near Roseglen.
Minot ASOS (MOT) observation. It also had a peak wind gust of 52 knots at 2154Z.
North Dakota DOT site at Denhoff observation.
This report is from the Automated Surface Observing System at Dickinson.
Mott, Hettinger County.
Hettinger (HEI) ASOS reported sustained winds of 40 mph with 53 mph gusts.
This report was from 11 miles west-northwest of Fortuna, sustained wind 42 mph with gusts to 57 mph.
This report is from remote automated weather station BLLN8.
Observation from North Dakota DOT observing site in Ray.
North Dakota DOT site at Rugby observation.
Down spouts were torn from a home.
Three (3) inch diameter tree branches were broken and a fence was blown down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Dakota in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in North Dakota, November 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 62148, 62135, 62136, 62134, 62137, 62142, 62146, 62175, 62176, 62178, 62179, 62180, 62181, 62184, 62140, 62141, 62133, 62144, 62145, 62138, 62185, 62186, 62187, 62188, 62177, 62182, 62183.