Flooding in North Dakota, June 15 to 21, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
316 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...
THE VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND...WITH SEVERAL CONVECTIVE EPISODES POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST ND THIS MORNING...WITH
A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING EAST OF DVL. THESE STORMS HAVE
BEEN NON-SEVERE SO FAR...WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND ONLY A
20-25KT LLJ. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL MASS
FIELDS. THE GFS HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON INITIAL CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...AND PLACEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL
UTILIZE.

FOR TODAY...SFC TROUGH AND WEAK COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTION SHOULD STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS MOST UNSTABLE CAPES CLIMB TO AROUND 1500 J/KG. DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 35-40KT IN THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW...IN THE MID 70S WHICH SHOULDN/T BE PROBLEM. SPC HAS
PLACE THE SOUTHERN 1/3 OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. WITH THE VERY LOW LCLS
THOUGH...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO NEAR ANY BOUNDARY
INTERSECTIONS. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR MAINLY IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN/EASTERN AREAS WHO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE
WATERS AROUND 1.5 INCHES. WE WILL MENTION THESE THREATS IN THE HWO.

FOR TONIGHT...DRYING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND WILL HOLD
ONTO POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH. TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN PAST
NIGHTS WITH COOLING OF DEWPOINTS.

BY SATURDAY...THE MAIN EMPHASIS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. WILL HOLD ON TO SOME LOWER POPS MAINLY IN
THE SOUTH.

FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT APPEARS
LIKELY. THE FIRST EVENT SHOULD FORM ON SAT NIGHT AND MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILES. THE SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND BECOME CAPPED FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MUCAPES WILL CLIMB TO AT LEAST 4000J/KG...WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS LIKELY INTO THE LOW 70S. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT WITH A SFC
LOW MOVING INTO THE JMS AREA BY AFTERNOON AND A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING FROM SW/NE...THEN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS
POSSIBLE. THE CAPPING APPEARS TO BE QUITE STRONG THOUGH...BUT
SHOULD BREAK LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH STRONG FORCING.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS EVENT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY BOTH
FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN WITH MOST AREAS SATURATED
ALREADY. WILL START TO MENTION THIS EVENT IN THE HWO.

BY MONDAY...CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
MONDAY NIGHT. NOT BEFORE ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN FALLS
ON PARTS OF THE REGION THOUGH...BUT NW FLOW SHOULD TAKE HOLD BY
TUE ALLOWING THE AREA TO DRY OUT. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME
MVFR/IFR VSBYS AND LOW CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-161200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
651 AM CDT FRI JUN 15 2007

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 2 PM IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. IN
ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY AGGRAVATE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND AND CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RIVERINE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY FROM OSLO
AND POINTS SOUTH...AND ON TRIBUTARIES OF THE RED RIVER IN
MINNESOTA FROM RECENT HEAVY RAIN. REFER TO THE LATEST HYDROLOGIC
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
EVENT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. IT
APPEARS THAT A BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...THEN MOVE QUICKLY EAST
INTO OUR REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS INITIAL BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TARGET AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2...WITH THE MAIN THREAT HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER
BAND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA
BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE HEAVY
RAIN...LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. STAY
TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REPORTS.

DK