High Surf in Hawaii, June 15 to 16, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI JUN 15 2007

CORRECTED TO MENTION MAALAEA BAY IN WATCH-WARNING-ADVISORY BLOCK

.SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING OVER THE
ISLANDS. A LOW ALOFT HAS BEEN PRODUCING HIGH CLOUDS AND MORE ACTIVE
WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE LOW IS NOW MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHWEST SO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF TODAY. SHOWERS MAY INCREASE AGAIN
STARTING TUESDAY AS MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADS WEST OVER THE
ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS THAT ANYTHING WILL HAPPEN TO
INTERRUPT THE TRADE-WIND WEATHER OVER THE ISLANDS. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND THAT WILL KEEP THE TRADES
BLOWING. A LOW ALOFT NEAR THE ISLANDS HAS KEPT THE ATMOSPHERE A BIT
UNSTABLE AND HAS PULLED HIGH CLOUDS UP OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE
SOUTH. THE LOW IS NOW ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF KAUAI AND IS MOVING
OFF TO THE WEST. HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS HAVE ALREADY
THINNED...AND SHOULD BE GONE BY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BECOME MORE STABLE AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY SO WINDWARD
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE. OUR WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN RATHER DRY THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDWARD SHOWERS MAY INCREASE AGAIN STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT LEEWARD AREAS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LANAI BUOY SHOWS HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS BUT SHORTER PERIODS THAN
YESTERDAY MORNING. SURF ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING SHORES TODAY SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY SO WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY. THE SURF WILL BE INCONSISTENT...BUT SOME WAVES WILL
REACH THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW A LONG FETCH OF TRADE WINDS EAST OF THE ISLANDS THAT WILL CAUSE
SURF TO RISE ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE EAST-FACING SHORES...BUT THE PERIOD MAY REMAIN TOO SHORT FOR
BREAKING WAVES TO REACH THE 8 FOOT ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

A RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
WINDS ABOVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SCA...LEVEL OF 25 KT AROUND
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WE EXPECT THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN ENOUGH TO
DROP THE WINDS BELOW THE ADVISORY-LEVEL BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW A HIGH IN THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH IS LIKELY TO BOOST THE TRADE WINDS BACK
UP...SO A NEW SCA MAY BE NEEDED BY WEDNESDAY.

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAILOLO AND ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...MAALAEA
BAY AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR SOUTH-FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

DONALDSON