Drought in North Carolina, May 1 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
946 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA TONIGHT. THE SKY
SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WIND AT THE
SURFACE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES OVER
VALUES REACHED THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE LATEST OBS AND GUIDANCE...I
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES BY A CLICK OR TWO COOLER ACROSS THE CWA. NEW
GUIDANCE ALSO LOOKS A BIT WARMER FOR TOMORROW...BUT NO CHANGE MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

NE GA RFW CANCELLED DUE TO THE RISING HUMIDITY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 228 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
MORNING RAOBS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE DEEP LAYERED DRY AIRMASS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS EXTENDING WEST TOWARD H5 RIDGE AXIS SET UP
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE GULF CLOSED AND WILL NOT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SFC DEWPOINTS OR A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE FLUX THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. SKY COVER WILL WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH PERHAPS A FEW CIRRUS
BEING FORCED INTO THE AREA BY NORTHERN STREAM JET TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE MORNING. AN INCREASE IN MOS MAX TEMPS SEEMS REASONABLE AND
BLENDED TUESDAYS HIGHS WITH THE HIGHER BIAS IN MIND. EXPECT A
DIURNAL OF 30 DEGREES SETTING UP TONIGHT AS MAX RADIATIONAL COOL
CONDITIONS SETUP...HOWEVER THIS WILL ALSO SET UP CONDITIONS FOR
COLD AIR DRAINAGE AND THE THERMAL BELT REGION SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED
WITH TEMPS ONLY DROPPING TO AROUND 60.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SINK SACROSS THE OH VALLEY TUE NIGHT AND
APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA WED. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 80S ACROSS THE S CWA...EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS TO PUSH IN FROM THE N AND SPREAD S ACROSS THE AREA WED
AND WED NIGHT. BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH AREA WITH COOL NE FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND A WEDGED IN AIR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST 10 DEG COOLER THU. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT KEEPING AREA
UNDER WEDGE WITH BELOW AVG TEMPS AND LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG AND
NEAR BOUNDARY CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS
FCST TO CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE NE SUN AND MON...PUSHING
CLOUDS AND CHANCE OF PRECIP SW OF THE AREA...BEFORE DISSIPATING
AND ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK.

AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. NO
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH EITHER CIGS...VSBYS OR WINDS. LOW LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAINTAINS A CLEARING...DOWNWARD VERTICAL
MOTION. SYNOPTIC WINDS THROUGH 18Z TUE WILL REMAIN WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW...EXCEPT KAVL WHERE VALLEY WINDS WILL
CHANNEL OUT OF THE SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A PROBLEM TUESDAY AND MODELS DO NOT HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS. LOW LEVEL FLOW DOESNT PICK UP
SW/LY UNTIL AFTER 16Z OR SO...AND BELIEVE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL FALL WITH AFTERNOON MIXING TO THE UPPER 20S PERHAPS EVEN BELOW
RFW CRITERIA FOR NE GA. HOWEVER...THE EVENT DOES NOT SEEM SO CLEAR
CUT AS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE DRIEST PERIOD SHOULD BE LESS THAN
4 HOURS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE 8KFT LEVEL...BUT
MOMENTUM TRANSFERS REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND WILL NOT ANTICIPATE A
DRASTIC CHANGE IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE AN
ISSUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
952 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-020200-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
952 PM EDT MON APR 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NED