Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Kansas, May 1, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
345 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

.DISCUSSION...

AN MCV CIRCULATION HAS MIGRATED INTO THE CWA AND WAS NEAR KMHK THIS
MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ALONG I-70 WEST THROUGH SALINA.
THIS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A LITTLE TRICKY WITH RESPECT TO
THE LOCATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1 INCH TO AS HIGH
AS 1.50 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ARE FORECAST TODAY. A BAND OF
HIGH THETA E WILL ARC FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ON THE
NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND
LIKELY TO HAVE SOME ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TONIGHT AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BE MAINLY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH IN AREA OF 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS
THIS EVENING THEN AS THE UPPER SYSTEM MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT FOCUS
WILL BE MORE OVER MISSOURI AFTER 06Z.

UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY WITH FRONT
SOUTH IN OKLAHOMA. EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION AROUND THE CIRCULATION
WEDNESDAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING MOVES INTO THE PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS CURRENT LOW FILLS OVER EASTERN
KANSAS OR WESTERN MISSOURI. WILL SEE MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY AS THIS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITH BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE EVENT
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPREAD OUT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THE SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD LEAD TO
RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

TEMPERATURES NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION AND HAVE ADJUSTED THEM DOWN.

MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LOW STAYS OUT WEST AND
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. BUT
DID REMOVE POPS FOR SATURDAY AND LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
REMOVING POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN SUNDAY AS 00Z ECMWF KEEPS
UPPER SYSTEM OUT WEST THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
514 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021015-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
514 AM CDT TUE MAY 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
70 THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A SLOW MOVING WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70
THROUGH THURSDAY. RUNOFF FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
PONDING OF WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES IN STREAMS AND CREEKS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER ONE INCH
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA.