Hail in North Carolina, March 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING AN INCREASING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FIRST TO THE NC MOUNTAINS
THEN THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH EARLY
EVE. WITH RELATIVELY LOW WBZ...SOME DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS...WARM MOIST AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...WEAK SHORTWAVES ALOFT
AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE
TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVE...MAINLY OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NE CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT OVER VA TO THE S THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT AND
THU...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES S AND WEDGE DEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA THU. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 25 DEG COOLER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MID 50S OVER NC NW
PIEDMONT TO THE AROUND 70 ALONG THE SAVANNAH VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE...GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE DRIER NAM FOR THU
NIGHT IN REGARD TO ENDING LIGHT PRECIP AND CLEARING.
THEREFORE...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A NAM SOLUTION FOR THU NIGHT
THROUGH SAT. THIS FEATURES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO
THE EASTERN CAOLINAS BY 12Z SAT AND THEN DRIFTING OFF THE COAST BY
00Z SUN. AT THE SAME TIME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. HENCE...DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THU NIGHT THROUGH
SAT. EXPECT CLEARING TO OCCUR THU NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WELL INTO SAT. WITH RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST DURING SAT...
WILL FORECAST SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND BEGINNING ON FRI AS SUNSHINE
SHOULD BOOST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO JUST BELOW NORMAL
VALUES...AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL ON SAT. USED A BLEND OF MOS FOR
TEMP GRIDS...EXCEPT USED LATEST 12Z MEX FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
GRID ON SAT.

FOR THE EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED)...GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE WHICH AGAIN RELIED HEAVILY ON THE ECWMF SOLUTION...BUT
DIFFERENCES WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS IN REGARD TO FRONTAL POSTIONS
NOT AS DRASTIC AS YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...12Z GFS QUITE LIBERAL WITH
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH LOOKS SOMEWHAT DUBIOUS WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. HENCE...I LIKE THE
CONSERVATIVE HPC POPS WHICH REALLY LIMIT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO SUN WITH APPROACH OF WEAK FRONT AND UPPER SHORT
WAVE...AND WED WHEN A MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS
TO OCCUR. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL...BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH COOLER WEATHER PATTERN WILL
EVOLVE LATE NEXT WEAK AS UPPER AIR PATTERN SWITCHES TO A TROUGH IN
THE E AND RIDGE TO THE W.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
AS AREA DESTABILIZES THIS AFTN-EVE EXPECT INCREASING CHANCE SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...ESP OVER W NC. CIGS WILL DROP TO LOW VFR FROM MTNS TO
NC PIEDMONT...SPREADING S ACROSS SC TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN
WILL BE ALONG AND N OF I-40 CORRIDOR LATE AFTN-EVE...WITH CHANCE
POPS SPREADING S ACROSS CWA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH LOWEST CIGS DEVELOPING BEHIND FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SW ACROSS AREA THROUGH MID DAY THU. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE NE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE 10-12 KTS THROUGH THU MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...GABRIC
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510-291000-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-
542 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA FROM THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER VALLEY TO THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF
SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH FEWER THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH TO HIGHWAY 74. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AS LARGE AS
PENNIES...AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>014-
019-291000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
542 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
520 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

NCZ053-282145-
BUNCOMBE-
520 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BUNCOMBE COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

AT 514 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LEICESTER...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WEAVERVILLE BY 545 PM EDT.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.