Hail in North Carolina, March 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
200 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...FEW SHWRS HV STRTED
POPPING ALNG THE FRNT IN NRN TIER OF CWA. MDLS PICKD UP ON TIMING OF
ACTVTY...BUT WERE TOO FAR S AS BNDRY HASNT DROPPD AS FAR S AS MDLS
SAID. PCPN SHUD CONT ALNG FRNT AS IT DROPS S THRU THE AFTN...BUT IS
XPCTD TO DIMINISH WI LOSS OF HTG. AS UPR RDG BRKS DWN TNGT IT WL
ALLONG A DECNT S/WV TO MV SE ACRS CWAS...PROMPTING MR ACTVTY TNGT.
SNDGS DONT REALLY MSTN UP TIL LTR TNGT AS THE S/WV MVS THRU. DECENT
INSTBLTY THIS AFTN...BUT INSTBLTY DROPS LO TNGT. WI DRY LO LVLS AND
AND WET BULB ZEROS LWR THAN 10K FT...WUD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HAIL OR STRNG DWNBURST WND WI TSTMS THAT DO FORM THIS AFTN.

AS UPR ENERGY DROPS S THU AFTN WL SEE QUICK CUT OFF OF MSTR AND
DYNAMICS...AND THRFR QUICK END OF PCPN ARND MIDDAY. WL SEE SIG COOLG
THU AND THU NGT BHND CD FNT. WI HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE
30S.

&&

.MID TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS TEMPS
WARMING THROUGH BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND...MAXING OUT IN THE
LOW/MID 70S BY SATURDAY. CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING
SATURDAY MORNING WITH NEXT APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...SUNDAY WILL START WITH
INCREASING S/SSW FLOW WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODEL OMEGA AND QPF ARE SPOTTY AS MUCH OF THE DEEP MOISTURE IS
SCOURED OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR CWA...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
CHC POPS GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL TROF CROSSING THE AREA DURING PEAK
HEATING. UPPER RIDGE TO BUILD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTND
PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDS
AFTERNOON PER LATEST GFS...AND HPC GUIDANCE SHOWS SMALL POPS FOR
WEDS AS WELL AS OUR AREA WILL IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT BEING DAY 7...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. TEMPS THRU MUCH
OF THE EXTND PERIOD WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...CLDS ARND 10K WL LWR THRUOUT THE AFTN AND EVE HRS AS
FRNT DROPS S THRU AREA AND UPR LVL ENERGY MVS IN. AFTN TSTM ACTVTY
ISOLD SO HV VCTS IN TAFS. AS UPR ENERGY MVS THRU TNGT WL SEE INCRSD
SHWR ACTVTY AND CIGS AOB 3K. XPCT IMPVMNT AFT SR.

&&

.MARINE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE FAR NRN CSTL WATERS
WITH N WINDS 15 KT AT THE DUCK COE PIER AS 0F 18Z. FRONT SHOULD
ADVANCE SOUTH THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THRU THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WITH GOOD PRES RISES AND CAA. SCA CRITERIA WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...ENDING FAIRLY QUICKLY BY
LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST INTO
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. AN INCREASE IN SW FLOW WILL OCCUR
AGAIN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WINDS
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE. EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL FIND VERY WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS WITH BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ135.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ152-154.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ150-156.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     AMZ158.

&&

SHORT TERM...GOODALL
MID TERM...QUELL
LONG TERM...COLLINS
AVIATION...GOODALL
MARINE...COLLINS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
505 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

NCZ029-044-045-079>081-090>095-098-290915-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-GREENE-BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-
JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-ONSLOW-
505 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING AS COOLER AND MORE
STABLE AIR MOVES IN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158-NCZ046-047-103-104-290915-
ALBEMARLE SOUND-PAMLICO SOUND-
S OF CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO OREGON INLET NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF OREGON INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE HATTERAS TO OCRACOKE INLET NC OUT 20 NM
INCLUDING THE MONITOR NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
S OF OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT NC OUT 20 NM-
S OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO N OF SURF CITY NC OUT 20 NM-TYRRELL-
MAINLAND DARE-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
505 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.