Flash Flooding and Hail in North Carolina, March 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION....FINAL VERSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE MOVING INTO FAVORED
INSTABILITY AXIS AT THIS TIME. FORCING NOT TERRIFIC BUT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEXT FEW HOURS AS MID LEVEL FLOW INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH ANALYZED THIS MORNING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH/TN VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPS ALSO REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMP OF
LOWER 80S. THUS EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN BETWEEN NOW AND
00Z...AND BETWEEN 22-02Z IN THE SOUTH.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO TRANSITION TO A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT LATER
TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT HOURS  AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE IN RESPONSE TO COLD
AIR ADVECTION. SURFACE FRONT AND LAGGING MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY
PROVIDE AN AVENUE FOR REMNANTS OF LOWER OH VALLEY CONVECTION TO MOVE
ALONG OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC WITH MUCH
NEEDED RAINFALL. USED HPC PRECIP WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD DUE
TO ABNORMALLY HIGH PRECIP WATER VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THURSDAY...
BIG CHANGE AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
RESULTING IN CHILLY NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE DAY WILL START
ON A CLOUDY/WET NOTE WITH CONSIDERABLE LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE THROUGH
MID MORNING. THEN ONLY LINGERING SMALL CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER
THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS
ISENTROPIC LIFT QUITE WEAK. WELL SATURATED LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDINESS WITH SLOW CLEARING FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY. CLOUDS AND BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE CHILLY SIDE WITH HIGHS AVERAGING 20 TO 25
DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE OF TODAY GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER
50S NORTH...MID/UPPER 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT TRICKY...IF CLOUDS BREAK SOONER...MAXES
COULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...
CLEARING THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
PIECE OF MAIN HIGH WILL BREAK OFF OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS DECOUPLING OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL
SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO MID AND UPPER 30S...SOME LOWER 30S
POSSIBLE NORTHEAST SECTIONS. THUS THERE IS THE RISK OF SCATTERED
FROST. HAVE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS AS
LOW LEVEL/850 FLOW QUICKLY TURN WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BECOMING NEARLY ZONAL BY MID WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED
SMALL CHANCE POPS. HAVE USED BASICALLY USED HPC TEMPERATURES. WARM
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z-18Z/...
SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KINT, KGSO, KRDU AND KRWI THROUGH 01Z, AND KFAY THROUGH
03Z. DUE TO FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 9000-10000 FT...LARGE HAIL MAY
POSE A THREAT.

SURFACE FRONT JUST NE OF RWI-RDU AT 18Z. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE FROPA WILL BE NOTED BY THE
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE E-NE WITH SURFACE FLOW BECOMING PREDOMINATELY
NE BETWEEN 00-03Z ACROSS THE REGION. SUSTAINED WINDS 10-15KTS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THU MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 22
KTS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL TRANSITION TO A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES LATER THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THEN TAPER OFF TO PATCHES OF DRIZZLE
AFTER 12Z THU. CEILINGS GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 23Z THEN EXPECTED TO
LOWER BETWEEN 23-03Z TO LOWER TO BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT. CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MVFR UNTIL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THU.
CLEARING NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL THU AFTERNOON.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...RA
AVIATION...WSS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
245 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-291530-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
245 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT DRIFTS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH MAY ALSO OCCUR. IN ADDITION...THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT
INTENSE LIGHTNING WITH UP TO 50 STRIKES IN 15 MINUTES POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE AS MUCH AS 30 DEGREES
COLDER COMPARED TO HIGHS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT MAY POSE A RISK OF LIGHT FROST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH MID
EVENING. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...HAIL OF ANY SIZE OR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH.

WSS/GIH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1028 AM EDT WED MAR 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             7 NW CASTALIA           36.15N 78.15W
03/27/2007  M0.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GIH