Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1257 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...STALL ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE TEMPS ALONG SRN BEACHES. NORTHERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT SEA BREEZE AT BAY AND ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 90 AT
MRH...MHX AND ONSLOW BEACH. SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP NEXT FEW HOURS
AND STILL EXPECT SCT CONVECTION MOST ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SE
VIRGINIA/NE NORTH CAROLINA VERY POORLY...ESPECIALLY THE NAM. THUS
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE LOWER THAN
NORMAL. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING IS EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING SE ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL AS OUTFLOWS FROM CURRENT CONVECTION ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE. SPC HAS PLACED
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA (MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 17) IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION TODAY WITH CAPES IN EXCESS OF
2000 J/KG...LIS IN EXCESS OF -5C...PW AROUND 2...LOWER FREEZING
LEVELS (14K) AND FAIRLY LARGE TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS DUE TO MIXING.
THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT. ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND SO WILL SHEAR. THUS THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON DEGREE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT MAINLY PULSE EVENTS. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
THREAT...WE HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TODAY DUE TO
THE HIGH PW AND THE FACT THAT THE FRONT WILL LIKELY JUMP TO THE SEA
BREEZE AND STALL WITH SOME TRAINING OF CELLS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST.

THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE NAM INITIALIZED POORLY THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION THE NAM AND GFS MODELS ARE FORECASTING STRONG
UPPER CONFLUENCE OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. THEREFORE I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST CLOSER TO THE
NORMAL DIURNAL CYCLE WITH POPS TAILING OFF AROUND 3Z AND CONFINED
MAINLY TO THE COAST.

THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MON WILL PRODUCE A NW
FLOW AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW TO THE
EAST. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE SE ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND COULD ACT AS TRIGGERS FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POPS SUNDAY TO THE CRYSTAL COAST-ILM
SEA BREEZES AND KEEP MON DRY ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MIDDLE 90S INLAND WITH
HEAT INDICES AROUND 100. THEN TEMPERATURES COOL BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN WX FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE HIGH PRES
BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. THIS FEATURE WILL DRY OUT THE AIRMASS
ALLOWING TEMPS AND DEW POINTS TO LOWER FROM CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THIS WILL INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION SOME...BUT THE MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO SUGGEST AN UPPER LVL VORT MAX SLIDING OVER THE REGION
LATE MON INTO TUE. DESPITE DRIER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS THIS
FEATURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW STRAY SHOWERS. THE HIGH
WILL SE AND OFFSHORE BY MID WEEK AND WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF WARM
MOIST AIR. THIS WILL TRIGGER TYPICAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
ALLOW TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM TO OR ABOVE NORMAL BY END OF THE WEEK.*
ADD DISCUSSION HERE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN
TSTMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NW WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AND
SW-W WINDS TO THE SOUTH. WIND SPEEDS ARE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE.
SEAS AT DIAMOND BUOY HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 FT. CURRENT FCST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH WINDS REMAINING 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 4
FT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STRONG TSTMS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

JBM/RAP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

AMZ135-NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104-100800-
PAMLICO SOUND-MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-MAINLAND DARE-GREENE-
BEAUFORT-MAINLAND HYDE-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-CRAVEN-PAMLICO-CARTERET-
ONSLOW-OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
349 AM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

|THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS UP TO 2 INCHES IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST LATE
TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.