Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
229 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER NORTH
CAROLINA INTO MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY FROM THE
READINGS OF PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION SLOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS EXPECTED. RUC MODEL
IS ATTEMPTING TO CLOSE OFF A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND
DRIVE SURFACE CONVERGENCE INLAND...TO WELL WEST OF RALEIGH BEFORE
SUNSET. THIS LOOKS OVERDONE AND ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY BE
FURTHER EAST...WITHOUT A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE EAST MAY PERSIST A
FEW HOURS PAST MIDNIGHT WITH THE AID OF EXITING 500 MILLIBAR
VORTICITY CENTER. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE CALM WITH CURRENT
FORECAST LOWS ACCEPTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
REFUSE TO GET EXCITED ABOUT ANY LOW LEVEL FEATURE THE MODELS
DEVELOP IN THIS WEAK PATTERN. MODELS GET A BIT EXCITED ABOUT
POSSIBLE CONVECTION AIDED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH...BUT DIFFER ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOSTLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL NOT PROVIDE ANY DEEP MOISTURE. SEA BREEZE IS NOT
LIKELY TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS INLAND DURING THIS PERIOD. THUS THE
OVERWHELMING CHARACTER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DRY.

TEMPERATURES SLIP A BIT...THOUGH STILL SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWS MOSTLY 60 TO 65.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES DURING
THIS PERIOD. THUS WITH TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST...SEVERAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY BACK DOOR FRONTS
WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
AT THIS POINT...RAIN CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH
LOWS IN THE 60S. &&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION...THUS SCATTERED LAYERS 4 TO
6 THOUSAND FEET VISIBILITIES UNRESTRICTED. POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER 20Z WITH LAYERS
BRIEFLY BROKEN IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. RW/TRW LEAST LIKELY GSO/INT
VICINITIES...THUS HAVE ONLY MENTIONED BROKEN LAYER 4 TO 5 THOUSAND
FEET WITH CB UNTIL 00Z. SLIGHTLY BETTER POTENTIAL RDU-RWI-FAY
MAINLY AFTER 22Z THROUGH 01Z. SO INCLUDED VCTS FOR THESE TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER 05Z. LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH BECOMING LIGHT NORTHEAST
AFTER 04Z. DID NOT INCLUDE FOG AT ANY TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AS
EXPECT LIGHT BREEZE AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN. POTENTIAL FOR FOG IF
RAIN OCCUR AT OR IN THE VICINITY ESPECIALLY FAY/RWI.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING SUNDAY WITH
DRIER...LESS HUMID AIR OVER THE REGION. THUS VFR CONDITIONS.
&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...RA
AVIATION...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
645 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-101000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
645 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS ROUGHLY ALONG
AND EAST OF LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ROXBORO TO SILER CITY TO
LAURINBURG.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOVE A TOP A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS EVENING... AND SPREAD SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME
LOCALLY INTENSE OR SEVERE THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH... AND PENNY SIZED HAIL.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL END AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE AIR MASS COOLS AND
STABILIZES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED IN THE TRIANGLE AREA THIS EVENING.

BADGETT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
705 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

NCZ007>010-024>027-041-100005-
DURHAM-FRANKLIN-GRANVILLE-NASH-ORANGE-PERSON-VANCE-WAKE-WARREN-
705 PM EDT SAT JUN 9 2007

...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHERN PERSON...
VANCE... AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES FROM THE NORTH...

AT 705 PM EDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR SOUTH BOSTON VIRGINIA. THESE STORMS WERE
MOVING RAPIDLY SOUTH AT 40 MPH TOWARD NORTHERN PERSON...
GRANVILLE... AND VANCE COUNTIES.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE VIRGILINA... BETHEL
HILL... STOVALL... OAK HILL... AND ROXBORO AREAS OF PERSON...
VANCE... AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES BETWEEN 715 PM AND 730 PM.

GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH... BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TAKE SHELTER INDOORS WHEN THUNDER IS FIRST HEARD OR THE SKY DARKENS
TO THE NORTH. IF BOATING ON AREA LAKES INCLUDING KERR LAKE... SEEK
SAFE HARBOR NOW.

BADGETT