Hail in North Carolina, June 29, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA ON
SATURDAY...THEN STALL OUT. THIS STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY A
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD SOUTH DOWN THE ATLANTIC
COAST AND BRING DRIER AND A LITTLE COOLER AIR TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ALLOWS
WARM SOUTHERLY AIR BACK TO THE CAROLINA REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SENDING A QUICK UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR.

LAPS ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CAPES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THE CWA WITH CIN 10-20 J/KG. MTN CU AND A FEW SHRA HAVE ALREADY INITIATED
AND CU SHOULD START EAST OF THE MTNS BY 17Z. FZL AT GSO HAS LOWERED
A FEW HUNDRED FEET FROM YESTERDAY AND DCAPES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM
500-800 J/KG. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
DRIFT SE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TSRA CLUSTERS MAY DEVELOP
COOL POOL AND MAKE A STRONG DRIVE INTO THE NC PIEDMONT REGION BY MID
AFTERNOON. I WILL ADJUST THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE POP FIELD
TO FAVOR THE MTNS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIKELY TO CHC POPS LOOK GOOD
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL REMAIN IN THE NC ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. AS
THE CASE THE THIS WEEK...SEVERAL STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WITH A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS.

TEMPS...WINDS...AND DWPT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. I WILL ADJUST SKY AND
QPF TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL AHEAD OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SAT MORNING AND INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SCATTERED AFTERNOON STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
SHOWING UP AT H7 AS EVIDENT IN NEG 25 DELTA THETA/E. MIXING
COULD BE LIMITED A BIT WITH BKN/OVC CIRRUS...BUT INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TAP THE DRY AIR AND KEEP
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FAIRLY HIGH. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE
0-6 KM SHEAR AHEAD OF FROPA AND WITH PW VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 1.5
IN...BACK BUILDING AND EFFICIENT PRECIPITATING CELLS COULD GENERATE
FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LEE REGIONS. FRONT BECOMES WAVY
AS IT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA LATE SAT AND SLOWLY SAGS TO THE
COAST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH
BEGINS MIXING INTO THE REGION LATE SAT AND WILL EXPECT MUCH LESS
INSTABILITY SUN AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW CROSSING SHORTWAVES
SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO SET OFF A COUPLE STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES NEAREST THE CONFLUENT ZONE. OTHERWISE SUNDAY
LOOKS FEEL DRIER WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS AND A BIT COOLER WITH
BASICALLY SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU DEVELOPING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEAMPLIFY THE ERN CONUS LONG WAVE
DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK...THEN REDEVELOP A STRONG TROF
WED-FRI. TUE LOOKS DRY WITH ISOLATED STORMS RETURNING TO THE
MOUNTAINS WED AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OFF THE COAST. A STRONG
FRONT SHOULD DROP TOWARD THE AREA THU/FRI. THE 12 UTC GFS IS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE EC IMPLYING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ON THU
WITH A FROPA THEREAFTER...WHILE THE EC KEEP PCPN IN BOTH THU AND
FRI. THE LATTER IS WHAT HPC HAS DONE AND I/VE FOLLOWED THEIR LEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE KAVL/KHKY THE ONLY TAFS WHERE RESTRICTIONS WILL START THE
DAY. MVFR FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13Z AND 14Z. OTHERWISE SCATTERED
CU OR AC WITH BROKEN CI WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER MODE THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RESTRICTIONS
WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY CELLS THAT MOVE OVER A TAF SITE. THAT SAID
NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE KHKY/KAVL AREAS WITH SOLID
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE REST OF THE TAF AREAS. THEREFORE...HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS DURING THE MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE TIMES. EXPECT PATCHY
MVFR FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED AT KAVL/KHKY WHERE THE
OCCURRENCE IS MOST LIKELY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION SAT AND SUN...PROMOTING SHRA AND TSRA EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DRIER AIR SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE SUN. MTN
VALLEY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-301800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082-301800-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
151 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 463 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
AND ONCE AGAIN BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME FAIRLY STATIONARY AND CONTINUE BUILDING
ACROSS THE SAME AREAS JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO AN
INCREASED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAREMONT               35.71N 81.15W
06/28/2007                   CATAWBA            NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN...PEA SIZE HAIL NEAR ROCKBARN RD.

&&

SLACORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
106 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ035-036-291800-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
106 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALEXANDER AND
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WINDY GAP...OR 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO UNION GROVE
  AND LOVE VALLEY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
109 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ501-502-504-291815-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
109 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BURKE AND SOUTHERN
CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...

AT 104 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF COLLETTSVILLE...OR 11 MILES
NORTH OF MORGANTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...LAKE RHODHISS...VALDESE...SAWMILLS...LENOIR...HUDSON...
  GAMEWELL...DREXEL...COLLETTSVILLE AND CAJAHS MOUNTAIN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

SGL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
124 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOILING SPRINGS SC      35.04N 81.98W
06/28/2007                   SPARTANBURG        SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            SCATTERED LARGE TREES DOWN NEAR CHESNEY...BOILING
            SPRINGS...AND LANDRUM.

&&

SLACORTE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
206 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ036-291900-
IREDELL-
206 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF STONY POINT...OR 10 MILES
EAST OF TAYLORSVILLE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  TURNERSBURG...SCOTTS AND HARMONY.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

NCZ505-506-291945-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
243 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR OLD FORT...OR 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MARION...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
LOCATION...

OLD FORT...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

MOORE