Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 28, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1145 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATE TODAY. THE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHEAST
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT
SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOUNTAIN TOP CU INITIATION HAS OCCURRED A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
OBSERVED YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY SHOULD POOL TO 2000-2500
J/KG...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...FRZ LEVELS HAVE WARMED TO
OVER 14 KFT WITH THE WBZ NEAR 12 KFT. A FEW SVR EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE NC MTNS TO THE I-77 CORRIDOR. I EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO BEGIN
OVER THE MTNS BY 17Z..ISO TO SCT CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE MTNS A LITTLE LATER. BY 18-20Z...SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE
SHOULD INCREASE TO SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND NC
FOOTHILLS...REMAINING INTO THE EVENING. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE FRIDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BREAKS DOWN.
THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWFA APPEARS
SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS AS THE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD YIELD HEALTHY COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON TO SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LIMITED SHEAR IN THE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER. NEVERTHELESS...SURFACED BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD BE HIGH
ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AS DEWPOINTS WILL BE SOLIDLY
IN THE UPPER 60S OR BETTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY...WITH PROFILES DRYING OUT FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LIGHT RETURN FLOW BEGINNING INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AS THE RIDGE MIGRATES OFFSHORE TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY CLIMB BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE AS
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS ITSELF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KAVL THIS MORNING...WITH VLIFR CONDITIONS
BEING REPORTED AT 1130Z. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...AND
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 15Z. OTHER THAN SOME MVFR VISBY
RESTRICTIONS AT KHKY...THE PIEDMONT TERMINALS SHOULD EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH KAVL AND KHKY STANDING THE BEST CHANCE
OF BEING AFFECTED. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT THOSE LOCATIONS...WHILE A
CB CLOUD GROUP SHOULD SUFFICE ELSEWHERE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG LIKELY AT KAVL
TOMORROW MORNING.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
549 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
549 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN TODAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE IN NORTH CAROLINA. STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG ANYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...WITH
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. AS THE
COLD FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
915 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             6 E MARS HILL           35.83N 82.44W
06/27/2007  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            NC   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTS 3/4 INCH HAIL JUST TO THE EAST OF MARS
            HILL.

&&

BSH