Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 27, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS MTN FOG DISSIPATING AND MTN CU
BEGINNING TO INITIATE. IN ADDITION...A SMOKE PLUME IS ALSO EVIDENT
ACROSS THE NRN NC FOOTHILLS...ORIGINATING FROM NRN MCDOWELL/BURKE
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES HAVE RESPONDED WELL TO THE STRONG MORNING
INSOLATION...CURRENT TEMP FORECAST ON TRACK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...FAVORING A S TO SW DIRECTION
BY MID AFTERNOON.

FORECAST AND OBSERVED SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ISO TO SCT MTN TOP
INITIATION MAY BEGIN BETWEEN 17-19Z. ATMOS WINDS BELOW H5 WILL
REMAIN VERY LIGHT AND STM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10
KTS...LIMITING THE POTENTIAL POP. IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL SERVE AS THE ONLY TRIGGER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL LIMIT
ISO/SCT POPS TO THE MTNS. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND LEE CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT SOME ACTIVITY OVER THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN PIEDMONT. ONLY ISO SHRA/TSRA OVER SC AND GA. I
WILL ADJUST THE TIMING OF POP/WX FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A 590 DM 500 MB HIGH CENTERED DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WILL GET SLOWLY SUPPRESSED SOUTH THROUGH THU NIGHT.
SHORTWAVES MOVING AROUND THE DEEP UPPER LOW IN EASTERN QUEBEC WILL
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AN EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...WITH VORT LOBES ROTATING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY. THE FALLING HEIGHTS
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORES OF THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH FORCING FROM LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW CONVECTIVE POPS TO
INCREASE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN SPORADICALLY ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP A WEAK
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR FLORIDA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS REGION IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND SHOULD ANY OCCUR...IT WOULD GET
SWEPT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERALL...VERY FEW NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA. WITH THAT IN MIND...I KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
AROUND THROUGH 12Z SUN. FROM SUN AFTERNOON ONWARD...UPPER TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST WITH SURFACE HIGH RIDGING DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPS. A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE THROUGH TUES
MORNING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUES AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AS SWRLY FLOW RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER UPPER MIDWEST. EASTERN TROUGH REASSERTS ITSELF BY WEDNESDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS EVERYWHERE WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS MORNING AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. TEMPS WARM THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED AS
SWRLY FLOW DEVELOPS BY MID WEEK WITH LOWER 90S ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT
AND THE UPSTATE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PULSE HIGH TERRAIN SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE AROUND KAVL AND KHKY INTO
THE EARLY TO MID EVENING. ELSEWHERE...DIURNAL CU AROUND 5-6 KFT WILL
REMAIN SCT TO BKN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TONIGHT...CU WILL
DISSIPATE AND SEA BREEZE MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS
MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT FEW TO SCT CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY FALL TO 3 KTS OR LESS BY 6Z. THE THIN
HIGH CLOUDS...LIGHT WIND...AND FRESH RAINFALL WILL SUPPORT MTN FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT. KAVL SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF IFR FOG BY 10Z...POSSIBLY
LOWER TOWARD SUNRISE. NON-MTN TERMINALS MAY SEE VFR TO MVFR FOG/HZ
LATE TONIGHT. FU NEAR KHKY APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAF.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND EARLY MORNING FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PRODUCE VFR WEATHER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-281000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
547 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...PRODUCING HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS OF 60 MPH. BE PREPARED TO SEEK SHELTER QUICKLY IF A
THUNDERSTORM AFFECTS YOUR LOCATION TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATE
FRIDAY TO EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

NCZ504-271830-
GREATER BURKE-
140 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 140 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF VALDESE...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MORGANTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RUTHERFORD
  COLLEGE...PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...ICARD...HILDEBRAN...DREXEL AND
  CONNELLY SPRINGS.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
249 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

NCZ052-271915-
HAYWOOD-
249 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTY THROUGH
315 PM EDT...

AT 249 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WATERVILLE...OR 13 MILES
NORTH OF WAYNESVILLE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO COVE CREEK.

SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH