Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, June 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THIS WILL REINFORCE A COOLER
AIRMASS ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN NEAR
NORMAL SUMMERTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z NAM APPEARS TO GENERATE A SPURIOUS SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD CAUSED
BY NON-EXISTENT AREA OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION OVER UPSTATE SC AND
WESTERN NC LATE THIS MORNING. THIS WAS ALSO OBSERVED ON PREVIOUS
RUN.  WILL RELY ON RUC FOR LATE MORNING UPDATE.  PRIMARY STABILITY
FEATURE IN 13Z RUC IS AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THAT EXTENDS FROM EASTERN GA
NORTHWARD THROUGH UPSTATE SC AND FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NC BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES EXCEED 2000 J/KG IN THIS AREA BY 18Z.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY TO INITIATE CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW
ALONG BLUE RIDGE ESCARPMENT WITH SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT THEREAFTER IN
NORTHWEST FLOW IN MID AND UPPER LEVELS.  EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY... BUT EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN TO ALLOW SUFFICIENT HEATING TO TAP VERY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS BY MID AFTERNOON. ESSENTIALS OF CURRENT FORECAST WILL BE
CONTINUED THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL MODIFY SKY AND TEMPERATURES
BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGEERY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ON TUESDAY MORNING...MOST VORT ENERGY WILL HAVE PASSED JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA.  BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT VORT MAX
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH TUESDAY REACHING NORTH GEORGIA TUESDAY
NIGHT.  MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUNTAINS.  OVERALL MOISTURE IS NOT SHOWN TO BE AS PLENTIFUL ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WHAT IS SEEN MONDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE CAROLINAS.  THE UPPER CLOSED OFF LOW WILL LINGER OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR DAYS WITH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK.  MORE CLOUDS AND LOWER
THICKNESS VALUES WILL COMBINE TO MAKE THIS MILDER SITUATION.
THE MODELS SHOW LESS WIND ENERGY GOING INTO MID WEEK...BUT STEEPER
LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATE
WEEK...BUT IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER
BUT MINOR VORT MAXES MAY CROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME.  DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE NEXT WEEKEND DUE TO
A DRIER COLUMN.  AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES ABSORBED AND MOVES OUT
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...OUR REGION OF THE NATION WILL WARM UP AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  UNFORTUNATELY...THE
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE AT THAT TIME AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS HANGING TOUGH WITH SFC WINDS STILL SE AT
KCLT...BUT LIGHT OUT OF THE NE AT KGSP AND KAND. THINK WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE SE IN THE UPSTATE AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE MTNS LATER IN THE MORNING. MVFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED AT ALL
TAF SITES THIS MORNING...EXCEPT KCLT WHICH IS CURRENTLY IFR. HARD TO
SAY WHEN THEY WILL MIX OUT AS THE MET ACTUALLY LOWERS THE CIG CAT AT
SOME SITES BY 15 UTC. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE...AND I HAVE THINGS MIXING
OUT BY 1500 UTC. EXPECT CB/S TO DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY TODAY...WITH A
GOOD NUMBER OF TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY AFTN. WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND DRYING ALOFT...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SETUP FOR FOG OVERNIGHT.
OF COURSE...A LOT WILL DEPEND UPON WHICH TAF SITES SEE RAIN TODAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...ATLANTIC MOISTURE SPILLING INTO THE AREA BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT
KAVL...AND WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SGL
NEAR TERM...LGL
SHORT TERM...DEO
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121600-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1146 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION IS VERY UNSTABLE... ESPECIALLY OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
GEORGIA... UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA... AND THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN
PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS THE THICK CLOUD COVER THAT WAS OVER THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IF THE BREAKS DEVELOP... SUFFICIENT HEATING WILL
OCCUR TO TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. IF
THE CLOUD COVER PERSISTS... MINIMAL HEATING WILL RESULT IN ONLY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER... ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE...DAMAGING HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

LGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
149 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

SCZ009-111815-
YORK-
149 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT YORK COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR YORK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ROCK HILL
  AND MCCONNELLS.

SMALL HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LG