A strong southerly low level jet produced isolated wind damage in the lower French Broad Valley.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GSP wrote it up.
A strong southerly low level jet produced isolated wind damage in the lower French Broad Valley.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 12:19 AM EST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1219 AM EST WED FEB 7 2007
.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
HAVE UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING. ALSO INCLUDED
BUNCOMBE COUNTY AND THE RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS...AS AREAS FROM BLACK
MOUNTAIN TO LAKE LURE OFTEN HAVE DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS KIND OF
EVENT. THE LATEST NAM SHOWS AN AREA OF 65-70 KT WNW FLOW ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE LEE SLOPES EARLY THIS MORNING. 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES
BY 12 UTC ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7 MB AND THERE IS A SOLID 5 TO 6 MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THIS TIME. ALL OF THIS
SHOULD BE GOOD FOR TRANSLATING STRONG WINDS TO THE GROUND.
HOPEFULLY THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LEE
SLOPES...BUT IT COULD BE THAT AREAS FARTHER INTO THE
FOOTHILLS...AROUND MORGANTON AND LENOIR...MAY SEE STRONG WINDS A
LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 946 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/
SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
BIGGEST CONCERN LATE TONIGHT IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS OVER THE NC MTNS.
NAM AND GFS BOTH SHOW 50-60 KTS AFFECTING THE HIGHER PEAKS WITH MT
MITCHELL GUSTING OVER 60 MPH. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
SHALLOW MIXED LAYER AND GOOD WAA WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP STRONGEST
WINDS ALOFT. NO PROBLEMS REPORTED YET AND PLANNING TO STAY WITH
WIND ADVISORY FOR NOW...WITH HIGH WIND WATCH OVER NC N
MTNS...WHILE CONTINUING TO MONITOR. TWEAKED TEMPS/DP/RH AND WINDS
PER LATEST GUIDANCE AND TRENDS...NO OTHER CHANGES.
PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 305 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF SNOW SWATH ASSOCIATED WITH CLIPPER POISED TO
ENVELOP NORTHWEST NC AS OF 1900 UTC. SFC REFLECTION ANALYZED OVER
MISSOURI AT 1800 UTC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 0600 UTC. DEEPER RH AND FORCING CONTINUES TO
BE FCST OFF TO OUR NORTH...BUT BASED ON REGIONAL 88D RETURNS...WILL
CARRY A LIKELY POP FOR THE NORTHERN NC MTNS TONIGHT WITH A TIER OF
CHANCE POPS SURROUNDING. STOUT WAA FLOW WILL SPREAD WARM NOSE
NORTH ACRS THE MTNS THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A VARIETY OF
WINTER P-TYPES. DESPITE THE CONTINUED EXECUTION OF LIGHT
QPF...FEEL THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK SPOTS TO DEVELOP...WHETHER FROM
SNOW ACCUM OR PERHAPS ICE LATER THIS EVENING...IS ENOUGH TO HOIST
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. FURTHER
SOUTH...FEEL ICE OR SNOW ACCUMS WILL LIMITED TO JUST SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
06/12 UTC SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DEVELOPMENT OF
WESTERLY 60 KT 85H JET TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS IS WAA REGIME WIND
MAX...CONFIDENCE SIMPLY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPECT DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH ELEVATIONS. CAA DOES DEVELOP AFTER
0900 UTC AND BETTER SFC PRESSURE RISES EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
MORNING HOURS AS FLOW TAKES ON A MORE NORTHWEST COMPONENT. SINCE
IT SEEMS THAT GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS TIME...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL THE NC MTNS TONIGHT...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HAVE KEPT HIGH WIND WATCH IN PLACE DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING CLOSER TO THE
CORE OF THE STRONGEST MID-LVL WINDS...PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH.
A PERIOD OF WEAK TO MODERATE NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACRS THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES...BEFORE LLVL
MOISTURE DIMINISHES IN THE AFTERNOON. PROBABLY THE MOST NOTABLE
ASPECT OF WEDNESDAY/S FCST WILL BE DOWNSLOPE AIDED WARMING RESULTING
IN A SUBSTANTIAL BOOST IN AFTERNOON MAXES. -CSH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE WEAK COLD FRONT TO DROP TO OUR SOUTH
TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST IS A CHANNELLED SHORT WAVE
FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND CAROLINAS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MORE SO ON THE GFS THAN THE WRF. THIS SHORT WAVE
GENERATES A SURFACE WAVE ON THE FRONT OVER GA/SC THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WEAK UPGLIDE HELPING TO GENERATE PRECIP BY 12Z FRIDAY NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. THE WRF SOLUTION IS SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR BUT THAT MODEL DOES NOT GENERATE PRECIP TO THE DEGREE THAT
THE GFS DOES. AT THIS POINT...I WOULD PREFER TO DOWNPLAY ITS
SIGNIFICANCE SINCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE MINIMAL...
SUGGESTING ONLY A MARGINAL QPF EVENT. THE POP WILL BE KEPT AT THE
LOW END OF THE CHANCE RANGE. SINCE A PRECIP TYPE MUST BE INCLUDED...
I SUSPECT IT WILL BE MORE A CASE OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW/LOW
ELEVATION RAIN...BASED MAINLY ON GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND A LACK
OF A TRUE WARM NOSE. EITHER WAY...THE EVENT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED
WITH THE WEAK LOW MOVING OFFSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. -PM
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRY AND SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST PART
OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED. WEAK
BITS OF ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN IN THE NW FLOW BUT SHOULD BE OF LITTLE
CONSEQUENCE. SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE TEMPS...MAINLY TO
LOWER THE MIN TEMP ON SATURDAY NIGHT BY ONE CATEGORY. TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LOW OVER ERN CANADA SPINS EASTWARD OVER
THE MARITIME PROVINCES AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY CUTS UNDER THE
WESTERN RIDGE. THE RESULT IS A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN BY DAY 7 WITH A
COLD AIR DAMMING EVENT AND MILLER TYPE B LOW FORECAST BY THE
OPERATIONAL GFS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SOLUTION IS VERY LOW. A CHANCE
POP WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT NOT
WITH PRECIP TYPES TO THE DEGREE THAT THE GFS SUGGESTS. INSTEAD...A
COMBINATION OF SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND RAIN OVER THE
PIEDMONT WILL BE FORECAST...BUT THIS SHOULD ONLY BE CONSIDERED AS
MORE OF A PLACEHOLDER THAN ANYTHING ELSE. I EXPECT THAT WHATEVER
HAPPENS WILL LOOK FAR DIFFERENT IN SPACE...TIME...AND PRECIP TYPE BY
THE TIME NEXT TUESDAY GETS HERE. TEMPS WERE KEPT CLOSE TO HPC.
AVIATION /20Z-18Z/...
OUTSIDE OF KAVL...WHICH STANDS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME MVFR CLOUDS
SPREAD UP THE VALLEY TONIGHT...JUST VFR LVL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON BRISK WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF PACKAGE. UNDER A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE
TONIGHT...SW WINDS WILL STAY UP ALL NIGHT FOR TERMINALS EAST OF THE
MTNS...AND EVEN THOUGH IT IS UNCOMMON...A PERIOD OF GUSTY WEST WIND
IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT KAVL. A WIND SHIFT TO W TO NW IS
LIKELY AT SOME POINT WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEGINNING AT KAVL DURING
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS...BUT WITH LINGERING LEE TROUGH...NOT UNTIL LATE
MORNING ELSEWHERE. ALSO FCSTG DEVELOPING GUSTINESS WITH SHIFT TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NCZ048-051-
052-058-059-062>065-509.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-050-053-
501-503-505-507.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NCZ033-049-
050.
SC...NONE.
&&
MCAVOYHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 416 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 NCZ033-049-050-501-503-505-072130- AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS- MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- 416 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 55 MPH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS OF THIS STRENGTH CAN KNOCK DOWN TREES...CAUSING SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO 4 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT BEYOND 4 AM. FOR MORE INFORMATION... SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 153 PM. A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE...WILL MAY CAUSE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 139 PM. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE IN THE DAY. MORE SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON NEXT TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TO BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE PURPOSE OF REPORTING WIND DAMAGE. NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-507-509-072130- MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- 416 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 9 PM TONIGHT TO 4 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR MORE INFORMATION...SEE THE URGENT WEATHER MESSAGE ISSUED AT 153 PM. PATCHY AREAS OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER...AND A FEW SLICK SPOTS COULD DEVELOP ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD BRING MORE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR THE PURPOSE OF REPORTING WIND DAMAGE. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-072130- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL- DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK- ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 416 PM EST TUE FEB 6 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ON FRIDAY...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 85. NEXT TUESDAY MORNING MAY BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MOORE
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A brief period of high wind gusts knocked down trees and power lines in the Marshall area. Wind equipment in the 7 Mile Ridge area measured a peak wind gust of 63 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, February 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 18759.