Hail and Damaging Winds in New York, July 10, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1130 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND TUG HILL PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WARM FRONT REMAINS ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SUSQUEHANNA REGION. HOT AND
HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH HEAT INDICES
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ONCE AGAIN.

RELIEF WILL BE ON THE WAY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. ALTHOUGH IT
WILL STILL BE MUGGY WEDNESDAY...IT WILL NOT BE AS HOT...WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 80S.

ONCE THE FRONT GOES BY...IT WILL BECOME COOLER AND LESS HUMID ON
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC WARM FRONT PARKED JUST TO THE NORTH OF FA THIS MORNING WITH
DWPTS POOLING IN THE LOWER 70S JUST TO THE SOUTH. THIS CUD PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ANY
LAKE BOUNDARIES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER ON. ANALYSIS OF WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE WK WAVE OVER OHIO WHICH CUD BE A
TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION. HOWEVER...BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE TEMPS
ALOFT WARM THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND MAY SUFFICIENTLY CAP OFF
DEVELOPMENT. CAPES PROGGED TO BE ARND 2000 J/KG BUT SHEAR WILL BE
WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH NO SUFFICIENT FOCUS OVER SRN TIER.
BEST CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE NERN ZONES ACROSS MOHAWK VALLEY/TUG
HILL. HAVE BUMPED POPS SLIGHTLY IN THIS AREA WITH ISOLD DOWN TO
NY/PA BORDER. STORMS THAT CAN GET GOING HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING SVR WINDS/HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

TEMPS CLIMB AGAIN INTO THE 90S AS HRLY OBS SHOW LOCATIONS ALREADY
INTO THE M-U 80S. DWPTS SHUD MIX OUT A TAD THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL
STILL RMN IN THE U60S. THIS WUD GIVE HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN
THE U90S AND CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES. WILL NOT ISSUE HEAT ADVISORY AS
THIS WUD ONLY BE FOR AN HOUR OR SO...IF WE EVEN GET THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN OVER
THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT...AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLOWLY
NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...SOME INSTABILITY LINGERS
EVEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND WEVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE
FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH DURING THE
EVENING TIME FRAME. OVERALL...THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW...BUT ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN TO PRODUCE 1000-2000 J/KG OF
CAPE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH LARGE-SCALE UPWARD MOTION
INCREASING BY AFTERNOON...WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DEVELOP/MOVE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DEEP-LAYERED SHEAR
IS PROGGED TO INCREASE A BIT AGAIN BY LATER WEDNESDAY...SO
ORGANIZED AND POSSIBLY SEVERE CONVECTION IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. VERY JUICY AIR MASS AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TRAINING CELLS.

THE FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER EARLY IN THE DAY OVER PARTS
OF NORTHEAST PA AND THE WESTERN CATSKILLS...BUT OTHERWISE
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED...WITH A REFRESHINGLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MASS ENTERING THE PICTURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THU NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT
CLOUDS AND A RW- ...20 POP...ON FRI WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALFT AND UPSLOPE
INTO THE THE SOUTHERN TIER. WEAK FRONT MOVES DOWN LATE SAT GIVING
US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS. OTHERWISE...UPPER
TROF PREVAILS THRU THE PERIOD WITH STRONG RIDGE CONTINUING OUT
WEST. TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. ELM AT
LIFR CONDITIONS WHILE THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE EXPERIENCING MVFR.
AFTER FOG AND LOW CLDS DISSIPATE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH SCT CU. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED BUT NOT IN TAFS
ATTM.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
BRIEF MVFR-IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. EARLY MORNING
FOG/HAZE ALSO POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT KELM. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
VFR SCT CU AND SCT-BKN CI. BEST CHC OF WIDESPREAD THUNDER WILL BE
ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PB
NEAR TERM...PB
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JML
AVIATION...JML

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-110730-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-CHENANGO-
OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA-
NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ANOTHER HOT HUMID DAY IS IN STORE...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE COMBINATION OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING
HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S...ESPECIALLY IN HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT FORMS WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND
LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
STRONG WINDS...HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT...BUT MAY BE
REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.

MJ