Winter Weather in New York, December 11 to 12, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
651 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
ACCUMULATING SNOWS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATER ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE DRY WEATHER WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SPREADING LIGHT SNOW BACK
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 415 PM EST TUESDAY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO REMAIN IN
PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION HAS
MOVED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWS QUITE A
BIT OF PRECIPITATION BACK ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THERMAL
PROFILE WILL BE INTERESTING WITH LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER AROUND 850
MB INDICATING ALL SNOW FROM BURLINGTON NORTHWARD...THEN
TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT
AND THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK. FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
VERMONT...NAMELY RUTLAND AND WINDSOR COUNTIES...THEY WILL HAVE THE
BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE JUST ABOUT ANYTHING WITH SNOW...SLEET...
FREEZING RAIN...AND RAIN. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTH BUT AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL
EXIST. ALL OTHER SNOW AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER FORECASTS LOOK
GOOD...3-6 FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST VERMONT...2-5 FOR CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS
AND CENTRAL VERMONT...AND 1-4 FOR SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EST TUESDAY...THERMAL STRUCTURE EARLY IN THE MORNING
ON WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE AND THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED. WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MIXING SHOULD
INCREASE AND WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 35 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED.
DRY WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS RIGHT OVER THE AREA. WITH
FRESH SNOWPACK...TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS AS WELL. THE DRY WEATHER WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOWS DEVELOP IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION ZONE...BUT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLE SOUTH TO NORTH
GRADIENT OF PRECIPITATION. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN VERMONT WITH DECREASING CHANCES AS YOU HEAD
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERMAL STRUCTURE SUPPORTS ALL SNOW FOR
ALL AREAS WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL VERMONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 201 PM EST TUESDAY...MAIN WX FEATURE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FIRST...FOR
MUCH OF FRIDAY INTO SAT MORNING...UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. W/ MOST DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH...CWA MAINLY UNDER
WESTERLY WIND FLOW...SO WILL ADJUST GMOS POPS TO ACCT MORE FOR
WESTERN SLOPES OF DACKS/NC NE VT. EXPECTING THESE AREAS W/ BEST
CHANCE FOR LGT SNOW ACCUM BFR RIDGE ACROSS THE NE FOR THE REST OF
SATURDAY INTO EVENING HRS. W/ CLRING SKIES AND LGT WINDS FOR SAT
NGT...WILL BE GOING A FEW DEGREES BLW MDL GUIDANCE. FOR
SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NORTH WHICH WILL KEEP ENTIRE
CWA UNDER CD AIR MASS FOR NEXT EVENT. MDLS BRING THIS SYSTEM
INSIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK OVER CAPE COD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. W/
ESE WINDS AHEAD OF LOW...MOST OF REGION WILL SEE ABUNDANT QPF(.25
IN ST LAW TO NEAR AN INCH IN SC VT). IF THIS HOLDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...REGION CAN EXPECT MAJOR SNOWFALL ACCUM...ESPECIALLY
SC VT. THE ONLY SAVING GRACE IS THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG JET...WHICH COULD HELP SHIFT SYSTEM QUICKLY EAST INTO
MARITIMES BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS
POPS...WHICH ARE LIKELY(60-70%)...AS THIS EVENT LOOKS FAIRLY
CERTAIN ATTM EVEN OUT IN DAY 6. BY 12Z MONDAY...SFC LOW WELL INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHICH PUTS CWA UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
REGIME FOR SOME LGT SW WRAP-AROUND. MON AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY...STRONG SFC RIDGE BUILDS SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA. AGAIN AS
PREV MENTIONED...W/ CLRING SKIES EXPECTED...HAVE GONE A FEW
DEGREES BLW MDL GUIDANCE TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...LOW PRESSURE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL
CAUSE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z TOMORROW. SNOW HAS
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE FA WITH SOME MIXING W/ SLEET ALREADY
OCCURRING IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR RA/SN/SL MIX AT KMSS/KBTV/KRUT/KPLG...AFT 08Z ALL
PRECIP SHOULD TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. CIGS
WILL VARY FROM 005-020 DURING THE NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW AND MOVE TO THE SE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
STRONG NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KNOTS WILL FUNNEL IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT AFTER 14Z.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL
18Z THURS AS -SN MOVES INTO THE AREA. EXPECTING MVFR/VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WORST CONDITIONS IN MOUNTAIN
LOCATIONS WITH CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS. SATURDAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ001>012-016>019.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ026-
     027-029>031-034-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ028-
     035.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN/DUMONT

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