Dense Fog in Illinois, December 11, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
355 AM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN ATTENTION
TURNS TOWARD A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM SYSTEM EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.

CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH WARM ADVECTION JUST OFF THE SURFACE SHOULD
LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY 12Z. SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKY
LOCATED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER WEST KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DOSE OF SUNSHINE TO
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER IN PUSHING THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...LEAVING LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY. IT IS FASTER THAN
THE ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE 10/21Z
SREF MEAN WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE FINAL WAVE ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DECIDED TO FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN SOLUTION THROUGH
THURSDAY.

MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD BE DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST
KENTUCKY...BUT WILL LEAVE IN LOW POPS JUST TO BE SAFE. THE FRONT
SHOULD REACH KMVN BY 00Z...SO WILL INDICATE LIKELY POPS THERE AFTER
21Z. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE WARRANTED TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. BROKE THE POPS OUT
INTO 6 HOUR GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR A LATER ARRIVAL OVER WEST
KENTUCKY...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. FOLLOWING THE SREF GIVES LIKELIES
WEST AND CATEGORICALS SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

MUCH OF THE AREA WILL GET A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE RAINFALL FROM THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND SURFACE WAVE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WENT WITH CATEGORICALS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW LIKELY IN THE EAST AND CHANCE IN THE WEST. EVEN LEFT A SLIVER OF
A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM AMIDST THE SHOWERS NEAR AND
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST. WIND FIELDS WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE...SO IF SOME DECENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...LOOK OUT FOR A
SEVERE STORM OR TWO. COULD SEE SOME MORE HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN HOW
EFFICIENT IT WAS LAST NIGHT...SO MENTIONED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH MAIN
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ALL THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIQUID THROUGH THURSDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...MUCH OF WEST KENTUCKY MAY REACH THE 70S
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS ANY SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE.  LEANED
TOWARD THE WARMER MAV IN THE EAST...AND TOWARD THE COOLER MET IN THE
CLOUDIER WEST. GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE TO THE WARMER MAV TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. STAYED CLOSE TO CONSENSUS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE 00Z GFS WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENSEMBLES...BRINGS A
RATHER SHARP MID/UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM OVER THE COOL SURFACE HIGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS SUPPORT A PURE
SNOW FORECAST...SO WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE AND JUST MENTION SNOW FOR
NOW. CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO AT THIS TIME. KNOCKED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS DOWN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SOLUTION AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST PERIOD AS SHALLOW EASTERLY FLOW
IS OVERRIDDEN BY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE REGION SHOULD REDEVELOP TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING...AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THIS
WILL ENHANCE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
VISIBILITIES BY LATE MORNING AND MUCH IMPROVED CEILINGS TO AT LEAST
MVFR CATEGORY THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL AGAIN
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT WILL COME YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT RAIN
EVENT...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC.....DRS
AVIATION...RP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
524 PM CST MON DEC 10 2007

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-111100-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
524 PM CST MON DEC 10 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE QUAD STATE FOR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS...RUNOFF...ESPECIALLY DURING THUNDERSTORMS...MAY TAX
DRAINAGE SYSTEMS RESULTING IN MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS SHOULD
REPORT ANY HIGH WATER PROBLEMS THEY ENCOUNTER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.