Heavy Snow in New Mexico, January 22, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
202 PM MST SUN JAN 21 2007

.DISCUSSION...
20Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER S CENTRAL CO WITH
A COLD FRONT DRAPED SW THROUGH NW NM INTO SOUTHERN AZ. 1022MB HIGH
PRES AREA IS NOSING DOWN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES EAST OF DENVER
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO NE NM. WV/IR SAT IMAGERY SHOWS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING SOUTH THRU AZ WITH A SHEARED UPPER TROUGH
OVER CENTRAL CO EXTENDING EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LATEST
400-200MB AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES A 110-130 KNOT JET OVER EASTERN NV
DIVING SOUTH BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
SN BREAKING OUT OVER EASTERN AZ AS WELL AS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER SE
CO.

12Z MREF H5 HEIGHT PATTERN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 15Z SREF THAT 3-4
SIGMA UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THRU MON AFT TO A
POSITION OVER FAR NE SONORA...WITH LITTLE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. 12Z NAM
AND GFS SOLNS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF THE DEVELOPING
WINTER STORM FOR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF NM. SIDED WITH 12Z GFS ON MODEL
DETAILS WITH HPC COLLABORATION AND WWD SNOW AMOUNT GRAPHICS. UPPER
DIVERGENCE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NM AS
THE UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH. THE COLD FRONT OVER SE CO WILL ALSO
ADVANCE SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
AFTER DARK. THIS WILL ALLOW A DECENT CANYON WIND TO AFFECT USUAL
LOCATIONS ACROSS ABQ AND SET UP A CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE OVERNIGHT. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MTNS AND GILA REGION...MODERATE
UPPER DIVERGENCE...ALONG WITH IDEAL DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH WILL
YIELD AVERAGE OF 5-10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
UP TO 15 INCHES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. HENCE WILL UPGRADE
ZONE 8 AND 14 TO WARNING AND BUFFER WITH A SNOW ADV FOR ZONES
15-16-17-26. ABQ SITS IN A UNIQUE LOCATION AS EAST WINDS WILL
LIKELY BLOW SNOW BEYOND WEST MESA HOWEVER WEAK OVERTOPPING MAY
DEPOSIT SOME SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS. LEFT SANDIA...MANZANOS...AND
ABQ OUT OF THE ADVISORY ATTM. WILL LIKELY SEE A LARGE SNOWFALL
GRADIENT OVER EASTERN CIBOLA AND WESTERN SOCORRO COUNTIES.

MODEL SOLNS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY BEYOND TUESDAY WITH POSITION OF
UPPER LOW. GFS TAKES STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH INTO CHIHUAHUA WHILE
NAM SPINS UPPER LOW ALONG NM/MEXICO BORDER. BOTH MODELS LIFT SYSTEM
NORTHWARD THRU NM LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER POSSIBLE WINTER
STORM. TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THIS IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT
FROM MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
EXTENDED AND KEPT PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  17  36  10  39 /  20   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  15  30  -2  35 /  60  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  17  31   2  37 /  70  30   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  28  36  17  43 /  90  60  20   5
CHAMA...........................  -1  26  -9  32 /  20   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  10  32   6  35 /  50  10   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  -3  22 -12  31 /  30   0   0   0
TAOS............................   6  31   2  38 /  30   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  14  31   9  35 /  40  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  15  33  11  37 /  40  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  15  36  12  41 /  30   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  36  19  39 /  50  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  37  13  41 /  50  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  23  35  16  37 /  50  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  36  18  39 /  50  20   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  24  36  16  41 /  60  40  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  32  14  34 /  60  20   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  32   8  36 /  50  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  22  32  18  37 /  50  50  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  18  27  15  33 /  60  60  30  10
RATON...........................   8  32   3  40 /  30   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  10  31   8  40 /  50  10   0   0
ROY.............................  12  31  17  41 /  10   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  13  32  13  39 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  21  33  16  44 /  20  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  18  33  15  41 /  10  10   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  21  35  13  43 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  21  34  16  42 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  21  35  14  43 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  24  34  22  39 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ008-014.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ015>017-026.

&&

GUYER