Heavy Snow in New Mexico, December 8 to 9, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1000 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2007

.UPDATE...ANOTHER ZFP UPDATE FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF NE
NM. SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG A BIT SOUTH AND WESTWARD...AND
DOUBT IT WILL BUDGE OVERNIGHT. ALSO RAISED POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
BUT TRIMMED A BIT ON SNOW AMOUNTS WITH RAIN STILL REPORTED AROUND
8500 FEET DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 600 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2007...WILL BE UPDATING ZFP
SHORTLY TO REMOVE EXPIRED WIND ADVISORY. ALSO ADDED AREAS OF
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS NOT BACKED OUT...AND WILL LIKELY SAG A BIT MORE INTO
THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. JUST REISSUED SPS MAINLY FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME AS THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE SLOWER TO EVOLVE...AND
SUNDAY COULD SEE A BREAK FROM SHOWERS...AT LEAST AS OF THE MOST
RECENT MODEL RUN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 235 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2007...COMPLICATED FORECAST
SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A PROFOUND EFFECT ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS NEW MEXICO THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SO FAR TODAY...PERSISTENT
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
STATE WITH SNOW AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND SHOULD VERIFY BY
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY IN THE
DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE PRODUCTION OF PRIMARILY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS TONIGHT
AND MUCH OF SATURDAY WITH THE SNOW LEVEL GRADUALLY LOWERING ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS QUITE A BIT DRIER AHEAD OF THE BACK DOOR FRONT THAT
WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE LATER SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY. AS THIS COLDER AIR MOVES WESTWARD WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A SIGNIFICANT OVERRUNNING EVENT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW STREAMS ACROSS NEW MEXICO
IN CONCERT WITH THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION.

FINALLY...THE THIRD WEATHER MAKER AND PUSH OF COLD AIR SLIDES
ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON TUESDAY AND WORKS WITH WHATEVER REMNANT
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP A CHANCE
OF SNOW IN PLACE AT THAT TIME. DRYING FROM WEST TO EAST CAN BE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE
STATE.

TIMING DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO POP UP IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
WILL LIKELY WREAK HAVOC WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AND
POSSIBLY THE EXPECTED ONSET OF COLD AIR FROM THE COLD FRONT ON
SUNDAY. LATEST GFS HAS DROPPED THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS AND HAS DELAYED THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
LATER INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
MOST RECENT ECMWF RUN. NAM IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND REMAINS
THE OUTLIER.

I CHOSE TO MAINTAIN A SIMILAR FORECAST TO WHAT I INHERITED AND
THIS SCENARIO IS DEPICTED ABOVE. WINTER STORM WATCHES PREVIOUSLY
IN EFFECT HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO SNOW ADVISORIES AND WILL STICK
CLOSE TO THE STATUS QUO AS MODEL DIFFERENCES RESOLVE THEMSELVES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  37  44  27  39 /  60  40  60  30
GALLUP..........................  35  39  20  37 /  50  40  50  30
GRANTS..........................  35  43  21  39 /  50  40  50  30
GLENWOOD........................  41  51  29  50 /  40  40  50  30
CHAMA...........................  28  35  18  33 /  70  70  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  33  45  23  40 /  40  40  60  30
RED RIVER.......................  28  36  15  31 /  50  60  70  30
TAOS............................  34  43  22  40 /  40  30  60  30
SANTA FE........................  35  47  26  41 /  30  30  60  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  48  27  41 /  30  30  60  20
ESPANOLA........................  37  50  26  43 /  40  30  60  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  41  52  33  47 /  30  30  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  54  28  48 /  30  30  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  40  51  29  45 /  30  30  50  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  54  30  47 /  30  30  50  20
SOCORRO.........................  43  58  28  49 /  30  30  40  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  46  23  41 /  30  50  50  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  36  50  25  43 /  30  30  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  40  55  32  50 /  10  20  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  38  52  29  47 /  20  50  30  20
RATON...........................  32  45  21  34 /  20  20  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  35  47  24  37 /  20  20  50  20
ROY.............................  35  48  26  39 /  10  10  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  35  47  23  34 /  10  10  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  40  60  30  45 /  10  10  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  43  59  31  41 /   5  10  40  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  39  62  32  49 /   5  10  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  41  63  33  44 /   5  10  20  20
PORTALES........................  41  66  34  48 /   5  10  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  46  69  41  55 /   5  10  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ001-004-008-014.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONE...NMZ002.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ006-007-013.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2007

NMZ001>021-026-081300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
355 PM MST FRI DEC 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW
MEXICO AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AFTER MIDNIGHT. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE FOR DETAILS.

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST NON PRECIPITATION WARNING STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBUQUERQUE FOR DETAILS.

TWO MORE STORM SYSTEMS COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK. ONE STORM WILL PRODUCE SNOW IN MANY AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...AND ANOTHER STORM COULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. OF THE TWO STORMS...THE
SUNDAY NIGHT STORM MAY PRODUCE THE MOST SNOW OVER THE MOST
WIDESPREAD AREA.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
842 PM MST FRI DEC 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             5 ENE ENSENADA          36.75N 106.45W
12/07/2007  M2.0 INCH        RIO ARRIBA         NM   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

GUYER