High Wind in New Mexico, April 21, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

.UPDATE...
BASED ON WIND PROFILERS AND CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE DECIDED TO
UPGRADE ADVISORY TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE LINCOLN COUNTY AREA.
CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC SO COULD CREATE A HERKY/JERKY
SCENARIO WITH THE WINDS PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE BUT GRADIENT ALOFT AND
OTHER DYNAMICS THERE FOR A FAIRLY GOOD WIND DAY. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND
ADDED ABQ ZONE TO THE ADVISORY AREA AND UPPED WINDS A FEW LOCALES
ACROSS CWFA. NAM DEPICED NEGATIVE LI/S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST SO KEPT SEVERE WORDING. DIDNT ADJUST POPS FOR TODAY
ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION OUTBREAK SLOW TO GET GOING. MOST LIKELY DUE
TO LOWER SURFACE HUMIDITIES THUS THE SYSTEM WONT BE AS EFFICIENT OF
A PRECIPITATION MAKER. HOWEVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE AS THE
UPPER LEVEL EDGES INTO THE STATE AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES
MORE. DUE TO JET ORIENTATION SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT SLOWER TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUS ALLOWING THE DRY LINE TO
STAY FURTHER WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. AN ALL AROUND ACTIVE SPRING
WEATHER DAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

UPDATED NPW STATEMENT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007...
PROBLEMS OF THE DAY WILL BE THE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A FEW LOCATIONS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
COULD SEE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS...BUT IT SHOULD ONLY
BE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO...SO HAVE DECIDED TO REMAIN WITH THE WIND
ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORMS IN TEXAS LAST EVENING HAVE CAUSED THE DRY
LINE TO RETREAT WEST INTO THE STATE. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG
UPR LVL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE TODAY WILL RESULT IN SOME
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE
TEXAS STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST
PEAKS WITH THE STORM...BUT CERTAINLY NOT ENOUGHT TO WORRY ABOUT
WINTER WX HIGHLIGHTS. SYSTEM WILL BE QUICK MOVER AND WILL EXIT
THE STATE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL SEE A WEAK RIDGE
MOVE INTO THE STATE BUT ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST 2ND SYSTEM WILL BE FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN IN PREVIOUS
RUNS EARLIER THIS WEEK. TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE. A FEW TWEAKS
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE LATER PERIOD OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ004>007-009>013-015-018>021-026.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ016-017.

&&

50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

NMZ001>021-026-221200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
519 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE. THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EAST TO THE TEXAS STATE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS
STATE LINE. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS... WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS ALONG THE TEXAS STATE LINE.

16

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1155 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

NMZ001-211845-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-
1155 AM MDT SAT APR 21 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER CENTRAL SAN JUAN COUNTY...

AT 1147 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL...14 MILES EAST OF BURNHAM. MOVEMENT WAS NORTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RURAL CENTRAL SAN JUAN
COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS HIGHWAY 371 SOUTH OF FARMINGTON.

GUYER